home – Page 43 – Echo Chamber 2016

“Owing to Ukrainian forces’ stiff resistance and the West’s broad support for Ukraine, Russia may be cooling on military conquest and considering a negotiated political solution. Caution is still warranted: Mr. Putin’s true limits remain unclear. The United States should continue to send Ukraine military equipment, especially antiaircraft systems and antitank munitions.

At the same time, the United States and its allies should continue to firm up NATO’s conventional readiness to respond to Russian aggression against a NATO member or on NATO territory, whether it is a result of a deliberate decision or spillover from operations in Ukraine. The message to Mr. Putin is that the United States and NATO emphatically reject his attempt to raze the architecture of deterrence.”

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*** NYTimes: Will Putin Kill the Global Economy?

Will Putin Kill the Global Economy? nyti.ms/377tk41

*** NYTimes: Covid, Russia and Economy Put the ‘China Model’ to the Test

Covid, Russia and Economy Put the ‘China Model’ to the Test nyti.ms/36Du8hc

“But China’s political-campaign-style regulatory crackdown has done its damage. Mass job cutting, once rare in China, is happening in tech, real estate, education and online games, some of the industries that were hit the hardest by the crackdowns. Posts about unemployment are shared widely as a gloomy sentiment grips the educated middle class.

“Standing at this historic turning point, we look back to the Golden Age,” read an online post about China’s four decades of economic transformation and dreams of individual prosperity. “We all thought it would be our future,” it said. “It turned out to be an illusory dream.””

**** NYTimes: What if Putin Didn’t Miscalculate?

What if Putin Didn’t Miscalculate? nyti.ms/3tYGlWF

“Within Russia, the war has already served Putin’s political purposes. Many in the professional middle class — the people most sympathetic to dissidents like Aleksei Navalny — have gone into self-imposed exile. The remnants of a free press have been shuttered, probably for good. To the extent that Russia’s military has embarrassed itself, it is more likely to lead to a well-aimed purge from above than a broad revolution from below. Russia’s new energy riches could eventually help it shake loose the grip of sanctions.

This alternative analysis of Putin’s performance could be wrong. Then again, in war, politics and life, it’s always wiser to treat your adversary as a canny fox, not a crazy fool.”