Full Transcript
Yuval Noah Harari of course is a
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best-selling author and thinker whose
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work engages us in the history of
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humanity and where we’re heading
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Thomas Friedman is also a best-selling
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author and columnist who for decades has
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been a guide to the world for readers of
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his columns and his books were in very
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good hands for the evening without
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further ado please welcome to the stage
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you’ve all her Aria and Thomas Friedman
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[Applause]
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so you’ve all we’re gonna begin with you
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obviously we think about the future we
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think about what’s happening in the
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world and what is setting the global
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agenda and if you could speak about the
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global agenda yeah I think the first
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thing to say about the global agenda is
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that it exists there is a global agenda
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which is not self-evident these days
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because with all the talk at least about
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the rise of nationalism and tribalism
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and the clash of civilizations and so
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forth we sometimes tend to forget that
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in a very deep sense all of humanity
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today constitutes a single civilization
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yes we have a lot of conflicts but every
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civilization every community every
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family has a lot of conflicts the people
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you fight most with are your family
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members not with strangers because they
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are there so the fact that the world is
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full of conflict doesn’t mean that we
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are not a single community or a single
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civilization and I think in a deep sense
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almost all humans today or at least
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almost all countries today understand
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the fundamentals of reality in the same
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way they understand politics in the same
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way if you think about China the USA
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Iran or Israel they understand the
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basics of politics in the same way the
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basics of economics in the same way and
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the basics of nature in the same way
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they argue about a lot of things but
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when it comes time to build a hospital
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or an economy or a nuclear bomb they do
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it in the same way and just as we have a
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set of similar ideas and practices we
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also all of humanity we have a set of
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common problems global problems
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can only be solved on a global level and
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of these global problems the three most
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important of nuclear war climate change
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and technological disruption now the
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first two are quite familiar by now the
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third technological disruption is the
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most mysterious most people don’t really
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understand what’s coming even most
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experts cannot really say what kinds of
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threats what kind of dangers the new
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technologies especially AI artificial
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intelligence and bioengineering will
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create there are a lot of scenarios
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scary scenarios like if you think about
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artificial intelligence so one scary
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scenario is that it will lead to the
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emergence to the rise of a global
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useless class just as the Industrial
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Revolution of the 19th century created
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the urban working class so the
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automation revolution of the 21st
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century might create the useless class
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and much of the political and social
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history of the coming decades might
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revolve around the problems and the
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hopes and the fears of this new class
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another danger is that new technologies
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might lead to the collapse of liberal
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democracy especially if you think about
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the combination the merger of biotech
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and Infotech they might very soon reach
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the point when they create systems they
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create algorithms that understand us
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better than we understand ourselves and
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once you have an external algorithm that
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understands you better than you
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understand yourself liberal democracy as
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we have known it for the last century or
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so is
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doomed it will have to adapt to the new
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conditions it will have to reinvent
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itself in a radical new form or it will
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collapse because you can say that the
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Achilles heel of liberal democracy is
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the heart liberal democracy trusts in
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the feelings of human beings and that
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worked as long as nobody could
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understand your feelings better than you
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yourself or your mother but if there is
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an algorithm out there that understands
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your feelings better than your mother
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and can press your emotional buttons
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better than your mother and you won’t
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even understand that this is happening
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then liberal democracy will become an
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emotional puppet show and we have these
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you know these slogans of listen to your
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heart follow your heart but what happens
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if your heart is a foreign agent is a
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double agent serving somebody else who
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knows how to press your emotional
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buttons who knows how to make you angry
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how to make you bold how to make you
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joyful this is the kind of threat that
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we are already beginning to see emerging
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today for example elections and
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referendums so really I would say that
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the three big challenges the three top
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items on our global agenda is how to
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prevent nuclear war how to prevent
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climate change and how to learn to
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control the new technology before it
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learns to control us thank you we think
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about the future we are the future of
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humanity we obviously have to think
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about our understanding
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of the world I wondered if you could
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talk a little bit about how you
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understand the world today
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well first of all Rachel’s great to be
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with you and devolopment thank you all
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for coming out this is a real treat so
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in my last you know as a columnist one
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of the things I’m always asking myself
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is um how does the Machine work what are
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the biggest gears employees shaping or
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reshaping the world today and in my last
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book thank you for being late I picking
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up really on some of the themes you’ve
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all spoke about I argued that what is
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shaping more things in more places in
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more ways on more days is that we’re in
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the middle three nonlinear accelerations
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with the three largest forces on the
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planet which I call the market mother
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nature and Moore’s law so a mother
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nature for me is climate change
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biodiversity loss and population growth
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in the developing world if you put that
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on a graph it actually looks like a
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giant hockey stick the market for me is
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globalization but not your grandfather’s
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globalization that was containers on
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ships and planes that’s actually flat to
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going down right now but digital
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globalization so everything’s being
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digitized and globalized put that on a
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graph whether it’s measuring data
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consumed per month or cellphones it
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looks like a hockey stick and lastly
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Moore’s Law coined by Gordon Moore in
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1965 the co-founder of Intel argued that
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the speed and power of microchips will
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double every 24 months it’s closer to 30
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months now but never mind Moore’s law
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has held up for 53 years put it on a
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graph it looks like a giant hockey stick
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so we’re actually in the middle of three
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hockey stick accelerations all at the
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same time and I believe it’s the
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interaction between them that really is
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not just changing our world it’s it’s
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reshaping our world and it’s reshaping
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five realms in particular politics
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geopolitics ethics the community in the
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workplace so as I think about politics
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right now that some of these on
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everybody’s mind you know one of the
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things you really see is that political
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parties all over the world here in the
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UK in the United States they’re blowing
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up some are in power so they think
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they’re alive but they’re all basically
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dead and that’s because they in my view
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they were all
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warned of an industrial age model that
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the central theme was capitalism versus
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labor or big government versus small
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government and the axis of politics was
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left to right and right to left um what
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I would argue and this is gets to how I
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think about the world today is that um
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that model is no longer relevant
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I think the way to think about politics
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today is through the model of climate
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change but I think we’re in the middle
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of three climate changes at once a first
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friend the change of the climate of the
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climate we’re going from what I call
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later to now so when I was growing up in
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Minnesota in the 50s and 60s later was
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when I could clean that Lake repair that
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River
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save that for us rescue that orangutan I
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could do it now or I could do it later
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well today later is officially over
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later will now be too late so whatever
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you’re gonna save please save it now
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that’s a climate change we’re going
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through a change in the climate of
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globalization I think we’re going from
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an interconnected world to an
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interdependent world and an
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interdependent world you get a kind of
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geopolitical invert inversion where
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you’re first of all your friends your
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friends start to be able to kill you
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faster than your enemies um you have
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Greek and Italian banks go under tonight
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this room is half-full a Greece Italy
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wait a min NATO there in the EU in an
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interdependent world they can kill us
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and an interdependent world your rivals
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falling is actually more dangerous than
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your rivals rising so if China take six
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more islands in the South China Sea
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tonight don’t quote me on this couldn’t
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care less
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um if China loses 6% growth tonight this
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room is empty
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that’s a climate change and lastly we’re
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going through a change in the climate of
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business and technology I’m a big
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believer that um one reason I focus on
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technology so much I’m a big believer
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that whatever can be done will be done
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the only question in business is will it
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be done by you or to you but just don’t
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think it won’t be done so I’m going to
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ask you what can be done and when you
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look at AI and some of the themes that
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you’ve all talked about I think every
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company they can therefore must analyze
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optimize
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sighs customize socialize and digitize /
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autumn Atty virtually any job product or
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service so they can analyze now thanks
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to big data they can find the needle in
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the haystack of their data as the norm
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not the exception they can optimize I
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flew here on British Airways rolls-royce
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engines those engines actually connected
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by sensor to rolls-royce and they could
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tell ba exactly what altitude to fly
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every mile to optimize their energy
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efficiency they can prophesize you may
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have seen the IBM Watson ad where the
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IBM Watson repairman comes to a
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high-rise building says I’m here to fix
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the elevator and the doorman says the
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elevators not broken and he says I know
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but it will be in six weeks two three
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days okay you can do predictive
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analytics on anything now you can
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socialize that is you could connect now
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to your customers your suppliers your
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employees on a horizontal way like never
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before
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you can customize just for guys from
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Minnesota with brown eyes and a mustache
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and you can digitize / autumn Atty
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virtually any job product or service you
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put all those together and every
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business today finds himself in the
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middle of the climate change so as I
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thought about that I thought well what
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do you want when the climate changes I
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think you want two things you want
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resilience maybe I’ll take a blow
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because you get disruptive behavior when
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the climate changes but you also want
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propulsion you want to be able to move
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ahead you don’t be curled up in a ball
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under your bed waiting for the climate
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change to pass so as I thought about
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that I said who do I go to to find how
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you get resilience and propulsion when
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the climate changes then I realize I
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knew this woman she was 3.8 billion
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years old
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her name was Mother Nature and she dealt
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with more climate changes than anybody
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so I called her up made an appointment
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went out to see her um and I sat down I
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said mother nature how do you produce
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resilience in propulsion and when the
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climate changes she said well Tom
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everything I do I have to tell you I do
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unconsciously but um these are my
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strategies um first of all she said I’m
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incredibly adaptive in my world it’s not
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the smartest that survive it’s not the
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strongest it’s actually the most
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adaptive that that bet survived and I do
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what she said through a rather brutal
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mechanism I call natural selection
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second she said I’m incredibly
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entrepreneurial where
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I see an opening in nature a blank space
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I fill it with a planter animal
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perfectly adapted for that niche third
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she said I’m incredibly pluralistic Oh
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Tom she said I’m the most pluralistic
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person you’ve ever met
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I tried 20 different species of
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everything see who wins and she did tell
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me something interesting she told me her
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most diverse ecosystems are her most
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resilient and propulsive ecosystems of
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course she told me she’s totally
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sustainable in a circular way everything
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is food eat food poop seed eat food poop
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seed nothing is wasted um v she said I’m
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incredibly high bred and heterodox in my
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thinking nothing dogmatic about me I’ll
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try any trees with any soils any bees
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with any flowers and lastly she did
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mention that she does believe in the
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laws of bankruptcy she told me she kills
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all her failures returns them to the
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great manufacturer in the sky and takes
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their energy to nourish her successes
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well my argument is that the community
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the country the government and the
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business that most closely mirrors
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mother nature strategies for building
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resilience and propulsion when the
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climate changes is the one that will
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thrive in this age of acceleration and
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since when I was writing my book it was
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the 216 election I actually imagine what
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if Mother Nature was running against
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Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016
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and so I created mother nature’s
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political party based on these
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strategies I won’t go into it I’m just
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close by saying that on some issues
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Mother Nature she’s out there on the
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left with Bernie Sanders um because she
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believes in universal health care and
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making lifelong learning completely tax
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free cuz she understands in this world
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that you vols describing it’s gonna be
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too damn fast for a lot of people so she
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wants to strengthen our safety nets to
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bounce people back into the game
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and protect him but at the same time
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mother nature would be out there on the
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right with the Wall Street Journal
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editorial page she’d actually be for
15:40
abolishing all corporate taxes only
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unlike our Republican Party she’d
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replaced them with a carbon tax a tax on
15:47
sugar attacks on bullets and a small
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financial transaction tax she would get
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radically entrepreneurial over here to
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pay for our safety nets over here
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unfortunately in our old industrial age
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model of politics if you’re
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for stronger safety nets he almost never
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for radical entrepreneurship if your for
16:05
radical entrepreneurship you’re almost
16:07
never for stronger safety nets what
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would mother nature call that stupid
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that’s what she’d call it because she
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would understand you will never produce
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resilience
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unless you’re a hybrid of these two and
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because our current political parties
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are not built on that model I think
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they’re all struggling now to find a way
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to talk about politics we’d also be
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hearing from mother nature this evening
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so there’s the three of us on stage and
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a variety of perspective problems also
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not our problems as you mentioned she is
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quite keen on extinction and she does
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believe in that and she wouldn’t care if
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we are unable to cope with our problems
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and go extinct also she wouldn’t care
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very much if humankind splits and say a
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small percentage becomes a new species
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better adapted to the new conditions and
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a couple of billions just go in the way
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of the Neanderthals and the mammoths and
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all that so it’s very good to learn from
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mother nature but copying her methods
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too closely would be I think very bad
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news for a lot of people my you’ve
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always get the best out of her and
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cushion the worst because and I I do
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agree with you your mother nature my one
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of my science teachers talked about this
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that she just chemistry biology and
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physics that’s all she is
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you can’t talk her up you can’t talk her
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down can’t say mother nature were we’re
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having a recession this year could we
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take a year off on the climate um she’s
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gonna actually do whatever chemistry
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biology and physics dictate and to put
18:07
it in American baseball terms mother
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nature always bats last
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and she always bats a thousand so do not
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mess with mother nature which is exactly
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what we’re doing
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I wonder where obviously I’m talking on
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a long-term framework here but of course
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I imagine many of you came here tonight
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thinking about you know what’s
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immediately in front of you
18:32
what news alerts are on your phones what
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what tom I believe you’ve referred to
18:41
the American president as a brain-eating
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disease perhaps what he might be up to
18:46
what else is going on both speak to how
18:50
we deal with what is unrelenting in
18:54
front of us while thinking about the
18:57
broader challenges that you’ve outlined
18:58
how do we do both at once how do we
19:00
adapt to do both at once first of all
19:05
can we have a bit more light on the
19:07
audience because it’s very difficult to
19:09
see who I’m talking to
19:10
it’s just a sea of darkness and it’s
19:13
nice to see some faces after all it’s
19:16
really about you not about us you will
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have to deal with the future also yeah
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it’s it’s very difficult for for people
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I mean humans have proven throughout
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history that they are very good when it
19:32
comes to short-term problems and
19:35
solutions but it’s extremely difficult
19:37
to foresee the long-term consequences
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and one of the things that happened if
19:42
we talk about then various climate
19:45
changes is that time is accelerating so
19:49
thousands of years ago something like
19:52
the Agricultural Revolution takes
19:54
centuries even thousands of years and
19:57
the consequences of our decision today
20:01
to start growing wheat we will see or
20:06
not we somebody our descendants will see
20:09
the consequences of these this decision
20:12
in a couple of centuries maybe even in
20:15
thousands of years but now time is
20:18
accelerating so the long term is not
20:21
2,000 years or 200 years the long
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term is 20 years we are really in an
20:28
unprecedented situation in history when
20:31
nobody knows the basics about how the
20:35
world would look like in 20 or 30 years
20:38
not just the basics of geopolitics who
20:41
would be the big superpowers in 20 or 30
20:44
years or what will be the major
20:46
alliances in the world in 20 30 years we
20:50
don’t know much more basic stuff such as
20:53
what the job market would look like what
20:56
kind of skills people will need what
20:59
family structure would look like what
21:01
general relations would look like so
21:04
it’s really the first time in history
21:05
when we have no idea how human society
21:10
will be like in a couple of decades and
21:13
this means among other things that for
21:16
the first time in history we have no
21:18
idea what to teach in schools and so we
21:25
focus on the short term and not just on
21:28
the short term but actually we should
21:30
then go back and focus on the past
21:33
connecting to what you said about the
21:35
crisis of most political parties that
21:39
still think in terms of the 20th century
21:41
and right versus left and capitalism
21:44
versus socialism and all that I think
21:47
that politics and government in most of
21:49
the world today they are doing a far
21:51
better job than ever before in running
21:55
the day-to-day business of the of the
21:57
country it may not look like this but
21:59
I’m a medievalist so I constantly
22:02
compare the government of today to the
22:05
government of a doll the third or low
22:07
st. Louis or something like that and
22:09
it’s wonderful the world we’re living in
22:13
is really wonderful
22:14
so they are doing an excellent job in in
22:17
in the day to day business of the
22:19
country but what they have almost lost
22:22
completely is the ability to have a long
22:26
term plan for the future because they
22:30
can’t see they have no realistic vision
22:35
of against base
22:37
things like the job market in 30 years
22:39
so what you see in more and more
22:42
countries is that they look to the Past
22:45
instead of to the future and instead of
22:49
formulating meaningful visions for the
22:53
word humankind will be in 2050 they
22:57
repackage nostalgic fantasies about the
23:01
past and there is a kind of competition
23:04
who can look back farthest so you have
23:08
Donald Trump wanting to go back to the
23:11
1950s or something like that and you
23:14
have put in basically wanting to go back
23:17
to the Tsarist Empire a century after
23:20
the Bolshevik Revolution and you have
23:22
Isis that wants to go back to the
23:25
seventh century Arabia and in my country
23:27
in Israel they beat everybody they want
23:30
to go back 2500 years to the age of the
23:34
Bible so we win we have the Bell the
23:37
longest term vision backwards and this
23:43
is a as a historian I can tell you two
23:47
things about the past the past wasn’t a
23:50
very good time you don’t really want to
23:52
go back there and secondly it is not
23:56
coming back no matter what you do you
23:59
can’t bring it back and so we are facing
24:03
really a crisis of the inability of the
24:07
political system to produce meaningful
24:09
visions for the future maybe the only
24:12
place in the world where there is
24:15
serious work on producing a meaningful
24:18
vision for the future is in China
24:20
whether it’s a good vision or a bad
24:22
vision it’s a different question but
24:24
this is the one place I think where the
24:27
government is seriously thinking in
24:30
future terms and in long terms of
24:32
decades and not in terms of one or two
24:36
years and certainly not in terms of
24:38
going back decades and centuries so just
24:43
to pick up on what you’ve all said
24:45
Richie that we’re starting with Trump I
24:47
described Trump as a brain-eating
24:49
disease
24:50
because as a columnist you’re always in
24:53
this position everyday where he says or
24:56
does something so outrageous you feel if
24:58
you don’t write about it you’re
25:00
normalizing him but if you do write
25:02
about it he stoled your brains for a day
25:04
now if you do that twice a week four
25:07
times or eight times a month you’ll wake
25:09
up after a year and discover all you’ve
25:11
written about is that knucklehead and um
25:13
and he’s actually sucked your brains out
25:16
so it’s a real it’s a real challenge um
25:19
so you know my the subtitle of my book
25:22
is is an optimist guide to thriving in
25:24
the age of acceleration so everything’s
25:27
sped up and the reason it’s called thank
25:30
you for being late as the title comes
25:32
from meeting people in Washington DC for
25:34
breakfast over the years and every once
25:36
in a while someone would come 15 20
25:39
minutes late they say Tom I’m really
25:40
sorry it was the weather the traffic the
25:42
subway the dog ate my homework and um
25:44
one day three and a half years ago an
25:46
Energy entrepreneur Peter Carr cell came
25:48
three enough minutes 15 minutes late and
25:51
said I’m really sorry whether the
25:52
traffic the subway the dog ate my
25:53
homework
25:54
and I just spontaneously said to him
25:56
actually Peter thank you for being late
26:00
because you were late I’ve been
26:04
eavesdropping on their conversation
26:07
fascinating I’ve been people watching
26:10
the lobby fantastic and best of all best
26:15
of all I just connected to ideas I’ve
26:17
been struggling with for a month so
26:20
thank you for being late people started
26:24
to get into it they’d say well you’re
26:27
welcome because they understood I was
26:32
actually giving them permission to pause
26:33
to slow down in fact my favorite quote
26:35
from the front of the book is from my
26:36
teacher and friend of Simon who says you
26:38
know when you press the pause button on
26:40
a computer it stops but when you press
26:44
the pause button on a human being
26:45
it starts that’s when it starts to
26:49
reflect rethink and reimagine and boy
26:52
don’t we need to do a lot of that right
26:54
now now to pick up on you Vols point
26:58
about leadership when the world is fast
27:01
small errors in navigation
27:03
can have huge consequences when we just
27:06
needed to go fifty miles at five miles
27:09
an hour well if you had a bad president
27:11
or prime minister for governor or mayor
27:13
you’d get off track but the pain of
27:15
getting back on track was fairly
27:17
tolerable but when you need to feel like
27:20
you’re going fifty thousand miles at
27:22
five thousand miles an hour when you
27:24
have a bad leader now you can get so far
27:26
off track it’s like a 747 pilot just
27:29
changing two digits as he enters the
27:32
navigation of his jet and suddenly
27:34
you’re halfway across the world in the
27:36
wrong direction and so leadership really
27:40
matters more right now now I you know I
27:46
I think I would agree with with what
27:48
you’ve all said about China in this
27:50
sense I think China’s leaders do wake up
27:53
every day more than the average leader
27:55
in the world and start the day by asking
27:57
what world am i living in what are the
27:59
biggest trends in this world and how do
28:01
i align myself with those trends unlike
28:04
I think a lot of leaders in the world
28:05
but I would find I would tell you I’m
28:07
seeing amazing leadership in America
28:10
today in two places you’ve a one is at
28:13
the corporate level and the other is at
28:16
the local level so at the corporate
28:20
level as I think about the workplace
28:24
challenge the way I put it I think our
28:26
central challenge is how do we turn a I
28:27
into ia how do we take artificial
28:31
intelligence and turn it into
28:32
intelligent assistance ance intelligent
28:36
assistance a NTS and intelligent
28:39
algorithms so more people can learn
28:42
faster and govern smarter so I’ll give
28:45
you example of intelligent assistance um
28:47
that I use it’s the HR department
28:50
resources department at AT&T are giant
28:52
telecom so you know what’s interesting
28:55
on AT&T three hundred thirty thousand
28:57
employees in one of the most competitive
28:59
businesses and world global telecom
29:01
pretty good chance that whatever is
29:03
going on in their HR department is
29:05
coming to a neighborhood near you so
29:07
what’s going on in HR at AT&T well they
29:10
begin their year now where their leader
29:11
Randall Stephenson he starts the year
29:13
with a pretty radically transparent
29:14
speech about where the companies
29:16
going what businesses they’re gonna be
29:17
in and what skills you need as a worker
29:20
at 80 that year filters down through the
29:24
company then they put all their managers
29:26
a hundred ten thousand people on their
29:28
own in-house LinkedIn system so I’m
29:31
there it’s Tom Friedman you know and it
29:33
has my academic background and the jobs
29:35
I’ve had in the company then they match
29:37
that up with the skill sets I’m making
29:40
up the number cuz I don’t remember it
29:41
exactly but it’s probably ten skill sets
29:43
you need that year to be a rising
29:45
employee at AT&T they’ve got my CV
29:47
they’re on LinkedIn and they realize
29:49
I’ve got seven of the ten but I’m
29:51
missing three then they partnered with
29:53
Sebastian Thrun from Udacity the online
29:55
learning University and he created
29:57
nanodegrees for all ten skill sets then
30:00
they came to me and said Tom here’s the
30:03
deal um we will give you up to eight
30:06
thousand dollars a year to take the Nano
30:08
degrees for the skill sets you’re
30:09
missing that we heard that you’re
30:11
interested in computer science we just
30:13
created an online computer science
30:15
degree for six thousand dollars a year
30:16
with Georgia Tech fact we heard you’re
30:18
interested in history you can take an
30:21
online course from that guy yeah you’ve
30:22
all Hariri will pay for that as well
30:24
yeah just one condition mr. Tom you have
30:28
to take these courses at home at night
30:30
on your own time not on company time now
30:34
if I say to them you know what mr. AT&T
30:36
I’ve actually climbed up one too many
30:38
telephone poles I’m just not into this
30:39
anymore
30:40
um they now have a wonderful severance
30:43
package for me okay but I will not be
30:46
working there much longer
30:47
so they flush out now about thirty
30:49
thousand people they take in about
30:51
thirty thousand people they advance
30:52
about ten thousand every year
30:53
what is AT&T social contract today with
30:56
their employees it’s a you can be a
30:59
lifelong employee still today if you’re
31:01
at AT&T but now only if you’re a
31:03
lifelong learner
31:04
if you are not ready to be a lifelong
31:07
learner you can no longer be a lifelong
31:09
employee at AT&T and that is the social
31:12
contract coming to a neighborhood near
31:14
you and that’s why one of my teacher is
31:17
Heather McGowan there’s an education
31:19
expert and this picks up on something
31:21
that you’ve all said Heather likes to
31:23
say mom dad never asked your kids today
31:26
what you want to be when you grow up
31:28
because whatever it is not
31:29
be here unless it’s policemen or firemen
31:32
okay only ask your kid today how you
31:36
want to be when you grow up will you
31:38
have an agile learning mindset will you
31:39
be predisposed to be a lifelong learner
31:42
long after you’ve left home and mom and
31:44
dad are not there to say you’ve all have
31:46
you done your homework and that leads to
31:49
what I think is really roiling societies
31:51
today and and and you’ve all touched on
31:53
this with these people might be out of
31:55
work which is something I learned from
31:57
marina gorebyss who runs the institute
31:58
of the future if we were having this
32:00
conversation 15 years ago one of the
32:02
themes we’d be talking about is the
32:04
digital divide
32:05
you know London’s got Internet
32:06
Manchester dozen Europe’s got it Africa
32:09
doesn’t digital divide it was huge um I
32:11
believe that digital byte is rapidly
32:13
disappearing I don’t know when it’ll be
32:14
gone but I’m sure in a decade it’ll be
32:17
gone and when it is the most important
32:18
divide in the world is going to be the
32:21
self-motivation divide whose kids have
32:23
the self-motivation to be a lifelong
32:25
learner long after they’ve left home and
32:28
mom and dad are not there to ask them to
32:30
do their homework is what you learned in
32:31
your first year now could be outdated by
32:34
your fourth year of college the idea
32:36
that you can get a four-year degree
32:38
Undine out on that for 30 years is like
32:40
so 1950s and that that has a lot of
32:44
people really unnerved because a lot of
32:47
people were actually born and bred to do
32:49
what they were told and God bless and
32:51
they built your country in mind and you
32:52
Falls but just doing what you’re told
32:54
now will not bring you average income
32:57
and an average lifestyle and I think
32:58
that has a lot of people really
33:00
frightened I think what you’re
33:03
describing is extremely stressful I mean
33:07
I just hear you and you know there is so
33:11
much stress and reinventing yourself
33:16
again and again throughout your life
33:19
sounds terrible to most people because
33:24
you know when you’re 15 you’re 16 then
33:26
you’re inventing yourself and it’s still
33:29
stressful when you’re 15 but it’s still
33:31
doable when you reach 4050 you don’t
33:35
want to change yes I want to keep on
33:37
learning new things and to gain
33:39
experience and to go into new places and
33:42
so forth but
33:43
really change the deep structures of my
33:47
personalities of my professional skills
33:50
to learn things afresh it sounds you
33:54
know very exciting and then very like
33:56
good but it’s actually extremely
33:58
difficult and if this is what we are
34:02
heading and we are heading in the
34:04
direction we will be facing a stress
34:06
epidemic even far worse than then today
34:10
and then other things with all these
34:13
algorithms that again are watching us
34:15
all the time in our learning our
34:18
abilities and our problems and whether
34:20
we are self-motivated or not once the
34:23
algorithms reached the conclusion that
34:26
you are not going to make it you will
34:29
not go you will not be able to make it I
34:31
mean we are used to this problem of
34:35
discrimination against people based on
34:38
wrong statistics like in the 20th
34:41
century discrimination against people
34:44
usually took the form of discriminating
34:47
against entire groups based either on
34:51
faulty statistics or based on just
34:54
religious biases and racism and so forth
34:58
so as the world if you were gay you had
35:00
discrimination against all gays if
35:02
you’re a woman then all all women and
35:05
one of the things about it is that you
35:08
could actually do something about it
35:10
because most of the time the biases were
35:13
not true and because many people
35:16
suffered from them they could join
35:19
together and have some a political
35:21
action against the discrimination now in
35:25
the coming years in the coming decades
35:27
we will face individual discrimination
35:30
and it might actually be based on a good
35:33
assessment of who you are I mean if 88
35:36
NT if the algorithms and the big data
35:39
algorithms of AT&T they follow you
35:42
around they look up your Facebook
35:44
profile your DNA your records from
35:47
kindergarten until today they will be
35:51
able to figure out quite accurately who
35:53
you are and if they for example find out
35:56
that I lack
35:57
motivation on the on the X scale on the
36:00
Harare scale of the Freedmen’s scale of
36:02
motif of of self-motivation 0 to 10
36:05
he is just 7.1 and we don’t want to
36:09
accept to our company
36:11
people of less than 8.2 and we know from
36:16
experience that yes we can give you a
36:18
little push but you just lack what we
36:21
need and you will not be able to do
36:25
anything or almost anything about this
36:27
discrimination first of all because it’s
36:30
just you they don’t discriminate against
36:33
your me because you’re Jewish or gay or
36:35
black or whatever because you are you
36:37
and the worst thing is there will be it
36:41
will be true I mean they got me i I
36:45
really lack self motivation they really
36:50
got me so what do I do about it and it
36:54
sounds funny in a way but if you think
36:56
about it deeply it’s terrible everybody
36:59
on what everybody has something and you
37:04
will not be able to do much about it so
37:07
let me give you the flip side of that
37:09
because everything about these systems
37:11
you’ve all is everything and it’s
37:13
opposite so you you just described the
37:16
downside of that but let me talk about
37:19
intelligent assistant for a second
37:22
example I give him the book so the
37:23
example I use is on the janitorial staff
37:26
at Qualcomm big American tech company in
37:30
San Diego they have 64 billion building
37:33
campus they they built the inside your
37:35
iPhone not Apple that’s why Apple is
37:36
always suing them over patents and um
37:39
they three years ago they took six of
37:43
their buildings they put sensors on
37:44
everything every door window light pipe
37:47
faucet drain computer and they beamed
37:49
all that data up to the cloud and now
37:50
they beam it down onto an iPad with this
37:52
incredibly user-friendly interface for
37:55
their janitorial staff so if you leave
37:57
your computer on or a pipe bursts above
37:58
my head
37:59
the janitor knows it before you or I do
38:01
and they just swipe down to see who to
38:03
call or how to fix it themselves
38:05
they’ve actually turned their janitors
38:07
into
38:08
it’s technologists they’re janitors now
38:10
give tours to foreign visitors what do
38:13
you think that does for the dignity of a
38:14
janitor because he or she now has an
38:16
intelligent assistant enabling them to
38:18
learn you know faster and work smarter I
38:20
will give you another example
38:23
intelligent algorithm so um those of you
38:27
American students here know that an 11th
38:29
grade way to take the PSAT exam the
38:31
practice SAT exam to take the SAT exam
38:34
to measure our math and verbal skills to
38:36
get into the college of our choice so we
38:40
also know in America that a lot of
38:41
parents go out in 11th grade and hire a
38:43
tutor for $200 an hour to Goose your
38:45
scores in math and verbal a completely
38:48
rigged game because if you come from a
38:50
family or neighborhood where you can’t
38:52
afford that you’re really at a
38:53
disadvantage so three years ago
38:55
the College Board that administers the
38:57
PSAT and SAT exam your a-levels and
38:59
o-levels partnered with Khan Academy the
39:02
online learning platform to create free
39:05
PSAT and SAT prep so the way it works
39:08
now is I take my PSAT and 11th grade I
39:10
get the results back I did really well
39:13
in verbal it says Tom you you could be a
39:15
journalist actually um but um but it
39:18
says I have a problem with math it
39:20
actually says I Tom Friedman personally
39:23
because it knows me have a problem with
39:25
fractions and right angles then it takes
39:28
me to a practice site just for fractions
39:30
and right angles doesn’t waste any time
39:32
on my weaknesses if I do well there
39:35
takes me to another site that says Tom
39:36
you could be an AP math Wow you need to
39:39
be met I mean no one in my family is an
39:42
AP math no one in my neighborhood
39:43
yeah you could be an AP math if I do
39:45
well there text me another site with 180
39:47
college scholarships last year 3 million
39:51
American kids got free PSAT and SAT prep
39:54
on this intelligent algorithm and I’ll
39:57
give you another one that’s very
39:58
relevant to the point you raised
39:59
we have about 32 million people who
40:01
start a college but never finished they
40:04
go one year two years two and a half
40:05
three three and a half years they drop
40:06
out go to bite get a job or do it online
40:09
the algorithm says you have no BA no job
40:12
so a whole new set of intelligent
40:15
algorithms have emerged one eye profiles
40:17
opportunity at work so what they do now
40:19
is you can go to them with your
40:21
year two year two and a half of
40:22
knowledge they will badge what you
40:24
actually know and what you can do with
40:26
what you know and they partner with
40:28
companies to slot you in without a BA so
40:31
I profiled a young african-american
40:32
woman LaShonda Lewis
40:33
she went to Michigan Tech for three and
40:35
a half years studied computer science
40:37
had to drop out for family reasons she
40:40
went back home was driving a school bus
40:42
to and from a computer school couldn’t
40:44
make that up and working at a law firm
40:46
on the helpdesk helping lawyers
40:48
rediscover their lost passwords okay she
40:51
was discovered by opportunity at work
40:53
they partnered with MasterCard slotted
40:56
her in as a stay measured her knowledge
40:57
slotted her in as a systems engineer at
41:00
MasterCard she’s now a senior systems
41:02
engineer at MasterCard and as she says
41:05
in the last line of her interview and
41:07
mr. Friedman I still don’t have a BA so
41:11
that’s an intelligent help that’s the
41:13
other side of this and and what I found
41:16
is there is enormous innovation going on
41:20
on the other side of this you’re
41:22
absolutely right on the downside but for
41:24
every downside of this somebody’s
41:27
invented an upside I would just add one
41:30
other point you know what was the
41:32
fastest growing restaurant chain in
41:34
America according to Entrepreneur
41:35
Magazine in 2015 and you never guess it
41:38
it’s actually called paint nite fastest
41:41
burn restaurant chain in America what is
41:42
paint nite it’s paint by numbers for
41:44
adults and bars
41:46
turns out idols like to get together in
41:48
a bar have an artist draw a design for
41:50
them and they paint by numbers together
41:53
according to that design and have a
41:55
drink it’s amazing how many adults like
41:58
to paint by numbers in bars okay who
42:00
knew okay that is there all these jobs
42:04
out there and that’s why I would close
42:06
by saying if you really want to blow
42:08
your mind
42:09
go to Airbnb x’ website you’ll notice
42:12
now there are two icons on the front
42:13
page ones homes that’s because I’m
42:17
coming to London like my sister did this
42:19
week and I want to get an apartment here
42:21
you know we all know that but now the
42:22
other ones called experiences and click
42:26
if you want to have some fun
42:27
click experiences it’s people monetizing
42:31
their passions I will give you a tour of
42:35
three man basketball games in Havana at
42:37
night with a mojito at the end read that
42:40
one the American mother who said I send
42:41
my 18 year old on this he didn’t come
42:43
back till 2:00 in the morning he was
42:44
having so much fun I’ll teach you how to
42:46
make falafel you know in job I’ll teach
42:48
you how to make it you know this is it
42:50
full time employment maybe maybe not
42:52
it’s the fastest growing part of Airbnb
42:55
is website and I predict in five years
42:57
it’ll be the biggest job site in the
43:00
world people monetizing their passions
43:03
sticking with this theme we’ve been
43:05
talking a lot about individuality we’ll
43:07
be able to learn individually just how
43:10
unmotivated we are again perhaps
43:13
motivated to go paint plates by numbers
43:16
so we’ll know so much more about
43:19
ourselves as individuals how is that
43:21
going to affect how we all live together
43:24
Tom you’ve written about I believe you
43:26
called yourself a pluralism supremacist
43:28
how does increase knowledge it’s
43:31
increased knowledge of our individuality
43:33
exactly just how
43:35
well-suited we are for a job or poorly
43:38
suited for any job what does that mean
43:41
and how we all live together and and are
43:43
we moving more inward in this moment or
43:46
where do you see floral ISM going it’s
43:50
very hard to say I mean of course as you
43:52
said I mean every technology has good
43:55
potential and in bad potential this is
43:58
what is different about disruptive
44:00
technologies compared to nuclear war and
44:03
climate change nuclear war is this is
44:05
obviously terrible nobody nobody wants
44:08
it the question is just how to prevent
44:10
it with disruptive technology the danger
44:13
in a way is far greater because it has
44:16
some wonderful potential so there are a
44:18
lot of forces that for some very good
44:21
reasons are pushing us faster and faster
44:24
to develop and adopt these disruptive
44:28
technologies and it’s very difficult to
44:31
know in advance what the consequences
44:34
will be in terms of community in terms
44:38
of relations between people in terms of
44:40
politics 20 years ago in the high days
44:43
of internet optimism
44:45
you had all this extremely optimistic
44:48
and today we say naive dreams and
44:53
visions that the internet will bring
44:56
everybody closer together you could have
44:58
friends from all over the world in the
45:00
end there will be freedom of expression
45:02
and all the dictators will fall and the
45:05
world will turn into one big happy and
45:08
peaceful community and this didn’t
45:11
happen and we look back today and we say
45:14
oh this was extremely naive I mean if
45:17
people forget about human nature did we
45:19
learn nothing from history and the
45:22
answer is yes we learn very little from
45:24
history does it mean that every new
45:27
technology will just make things worse
45:30
no obviously not but it extremely
45:33
difficult to know which way it will go I
45:39
think that history is just not
45:41
deterministic and again when you look to
45:45
the past when you look at the 20th
45:46
century and what people could do with
45:50
new technologies and you could build you
45:53
can use the trains and radio to build
45:55
Nazi Germany or you could use the same
45:58
technology to build liberal democracy
45:59
and it’s it’s kind of touching goal who
46:04
wins I don’t think there is any
46:07
predetermined or preordained winner in
46:12
these competitions so again with AI we
46:16
can sit here all evening and a couple of
46:19
more evenings and spin all kinds of
46:22
likely scenarios which are all possible
46:25
what will happen some very good and some
46:28
very bad and some in between and we just
46:32
don’t know I think as a story in the the
46:37
best thing the most important thing we
46:40
need to realize is that there is no
46:43
predetermined
46:44
story which is in a way very frightening
46:47
and you know we are now living with the
46:53
collapse of the last story of
46:57
inevitability
46:59
and in the 1990s in the same era of the
47:04
extremely optimistic vision of the
47:07
internet we also had this story this
47:12
idea that history is over that we know
47:16
who won the great ideological battle of
47:20
the 20th century liberal democracy and
47:22
in free-market capitalism came out on
47:25
out on top and now it’s just a question
47:28
of time until it will spread and take
47:31
over the whole world and again this now
47:34
seems extremely naive and the moment we
47:39
are at now is a moment of extreme
47:45
disillusionment and bewilderment because
47:48
we have no idea where things will will
47:53
go from here this is why I think it’s
47:56
it’s very important to be aware of the
47:59
of the downside of the dangerous
48:02
scenarios of the new technologies I mean
48:06
obviously the the corporation’s the
48:09
engineers the people in the laboratories
48:11
they naturally focus on all the enormous
48:16
benefits that these technologies might
48:20
bring us and it folds to historians and
48:24
to philosophers and to social scientists
48:27
to think about all the ways in which
48:29
things can go wrong so when Frank
48:33
Okayama wrote the end of history I at
48:36
the same time wrote a book called Lexus
48:38
and the olive tree and the argument of
48:40
the book was that I think what is going
48:42
to shape the future is a tension between
48:44
all of these things that are old faith
48:47
community religion sect tribe all things
48:50
that anchor us in the world olive trees
48:52
and the interaction between them and
48:54
technology and I still believe that that
48:57
is that’s certainly for me a helpful
48:59
framework that it’s a because what we do
49:01
with those passions how we govern them
49:03
how we mobilize them it can be for good
49:05
or for ill and that for it for me
49:09
you know it’s a good segue to talk about
49:11
the ethics question and one you wrote a
49:14
whole book about Homo dias
49:16
you know so uh III just did a little
49:18
chapter on it and and let me give mine
49:21
and then you give yours because I think
49:23
to be an interesting contrast between
49:25
the two so my version of the argument
49:29
you made the chapter on it is called is
49:33
God in cyberspace he’s God in cyberspace
49:37
best question ever got on book tour 1990
49:41
I was selling Lexus the Ala tree in
49:42
Portland Oregon question time came young
49:44
man stood up in the balcony said mr.
49:46
Friedman I have a question he is god in
49:48
cyberspace I said I have no idea
49:59
I felt like an idiot so I got home I
50:03
called my spiritual teacher he was a
50:05
rabbi I got to know at the Hartman
50:06
Institute in Jerusalem when I was the
50:08
New York Times correspondent there great
50:09
tome u2 scholar three marks
50:11
now there’s an Amsterdam married to a
50:12
Dutch priest interesting character and
50:14
um I called him up in Amsterdam I said
50:19
see I got a question I’ve never had
50:20
before is God in cyberspace
50:23
what should I said and I he said well
50:26
Tom in our faith tradition we actually
50:28
have two concepts of the Almighty a
50:29
biblical concept and a post biblical
50:31
concept so the biblical concept is that
50:33
the almighty is almighty he smites evil
50:37
and rewards good and if that’s your view
50:39
of God he sure isn’t in cyberspace which
50:43
is full of pornography gambling cheating
50:44
lying people smearing one another and
50:46
Twitter and now we know fake news so um
50:49
fortunately though he said we have a
50:51
post biblical view of God and the post
50:54
biblical view of God is that God
50:55
manifests himself by how we behave so if
50:58
we want God to be in cyberspace we have
51:00
to bring him there by how we behave
51:02
there I really like this answer I put it
51:04
into the paperback edition of Lexus the
51:06
olive tree in 2000 where none of you saw
51:08
it and it sat there for 16 years
51:09
anyways I started working on this book
51:11
and I found myself
51:13
spontaneously retelling that story I
51:15
said why are you retelling that story
51:17
and it became obvious to me for two
51:18
reasons and one just happened I think in
51:21
the last couple of years in the
51:23
developed world we began living 51
51:25
scent of our lives in cyberspace it’s
51:28
not where you go to find a date find us
51:29
out spouse buy a house buy a car write a
51:31
book buy a book get a mortgage give
51:34
alone get your news generate your news
51:36
we’re now living do your banking your
51:38
brokerage we’re now living 51% of our
51:41
lives in cyberspace and my definition of
51:44
cyberspace is that it’s a realm where
51:45
we’re all connected and no one’s in
51:47
charge so there are no courts in
51:50
cyberspace no lovely ceman no stoplights
51:52
no no 1-800 please stop Putin from
51:56
hacking my election but that’s where
51:59
we’re living our lives another way to
52:01
describe it we’re living 51% of our
52:03
lives in a realm that is fundamentally
52:06
God free at the same time because of
52:09
these accelerations you and I both have
52:11
talked about I think we’re standing at a
52:13
moral intersection we have never stood
52:15
at before as a species in 1945 we
52:18
entered the world where one country
52:20
could kill all of us possi regime and
52:23
that was the United States I’m glad it
52:25
had to be one country but it was the
52:26
United States I think we’re entering a
52:29
world where one person can kill all of
52:30
us and at the same time at the same time
52:33
where all of us could actually fix
52:36
everything because these accelerated
52:38
powers for the first time are creating
52:40
world where one of us could kill all of
52:41
us and all of us now if we actually put
52:43
our minds to it we have the tools to
52:45
feed house clothe and educate every
52:48
person on the planet we have never been
52:50
to this intersection before where one of
52:53
us can kill all of us and all of us
52:54
could fix everything and what does that
52:57
mean means we’ve never been more godlike
52:59
as a species than we are today well put
53:02
those two together we’ve never lived
53:03
more of our lives in a realm that’s
53:05
Godfrey and we have never been more
53:08
godlike and what that means is that what
53:11
every person thinks feels and believes
53:13
really matters it means everyone needs
53:17
to be in the grip of sustainable values
53:18
it means at a minimum everyone needs to
53:22
be in the embrace of the Golden Rule and
53:24
every faith and culture has their
53:25
version of it doing to others as you
53:27
wish them to do unto you because you now
53:28
live in a world where more people can do
53:30
unto you farther faster deeper cheaper
53:33
than ever before Putin did unto us in
53:35
our election and we can do unto others
53:37
farther faster deeper cheaper than ever
53:39
for everyone needs to be in the embrace
53:42
of the golden rule I know what you’re
53:45
thinking actually gave this thing as a
53:48
commencement address at Olin College of
53:50
Engineering two years ago and I said to
53:52
the parents there I know what you’re
53:55
thinking
53:55
you paid two hundred thousand dollars
53:58
for your kid to get an engineering
54:00
degree and who do they bring us the
54:02
commencement speaker but a knucklehead
54:05
promoting the golden rule is there
54:08
anything more naive and what I told them
54:12
is what I would say again tonight I
54:14
think in this age of acceleration
54:16
naivete is the new realism because
54:19
what’s really naive is thinking we’re
54:21
gonna be okay in a world that is this
54:24
interdependent we’re men women and
54:26
machines get this super empowered if
54:29
everyone is not in the embrace of the
54:32
golden rule where does the golden rule
54:34
come from I think two places primarily
54:36
strong families and healthy communities
54:39
and that’s why my focus and my work
54:42
today is so much on healthy communities
54:45
but I would say that maybe the big
54:49
problem is not so much morality as it is
54:52
causality that we just cause a little I
54:57
mean the ability to understand the
54:58
change of causes and effects in the
55:00
world I think there is no lack of values
55:03
today in the world but to really act
55:07
well it’s not enough to have good values
55:09
you need to have a good understanding of
55:12
the chains of causes and effects like if
55:15
you think about the commandment like
55:17
don’t steal so okay let’s everybody
55:20
agree it’s not good to steal but the big
55:23
problem today is not that somebody says
55:25
hey I want to steal what will you do to
55:27
me
55:27
the big problem is that stealing has
55:30
become so complicated that I’m steaming
55:33
all the time and I’m not even aware of
55:35
it the commandment don’t steal was
55:39
formalized in an era when stealing meant
55:42
meant breaking myself I’m breaking into
55:45
somebody’s house and snatching some gold
55:48
coins or a goat or whatever and it was
55:51
easy – at least honest
55:52
what I’m doing and what the potential
55:55
consequences are for the owner of the
55:58
gold coins of the gold but how do I
56:01
still today well I put like ten thousand
56:04
and I have a pension fund and ten
56:07
thousand dollars out of my pension fund
56:10
are invested in some big oil corporation
56:14
or chemical corporation that brings
56:16
profits of say four or five percent
56:19
every years with a very good investment
56:20
and how does the corporation makes such
56:24
huge profits for example by dumping
56:27
toxic waste into a river and polluting
56:31
the entire water resources of the area
56:34
and hurting the health of the local
56:36
population and the wildlife and so forth
56:39
but the cooperation is so rich that it
56:43
can retain an army of lawyers that
56:46
protects it against all lawsuits and
56:49
also a small brigade of people in the
56:55
capital that block any attempt to have
56:59
stronger environmental regulations now
57:02
am i guilty of stealing a river I’m not
57:06
even a word that part of my pension fund
57:09
is invested in this cooperation and even
57:12
if I am aware I don’t know how the
57:15
cooperation makes its money it will take
57:18
me months maybe years to find out where
57:22
my money
57:23
what my money is doing and during that
57:26
time I will be guilty of so many other
57:29
crimes which I know nothing about and
57:32
the really the problem is that our sense
57:36
of morality our sense of justice like
57:39
our other senses was evolved in the
57:45
ancient African savanna when your
57:48
pension funds you had just one pension
57:50
funds which was your kids and you knew
57:53
what your pension fund was you was doing
57:56
it was playing in the mud or something
57:59
and so the entire the ability that the
58:04
problem is no
58:05
agreeing on basic morality the problem
58:10
is on understanding the extremely
58:12
complicated change of cause and effect
58:14
in the world and again my fear is that
58:18
maybe Homo sapiens is just not up to it
58:21
we have created such a complicated world
58:23
that we have no longer able to make
58:26
sense of what is happening and if I
58:30
looked at politics in the u.s. again
58:33
from the vantage point of a medievalist
58:36
Republicans and Democrats seems almost
58:39
identical I just don’t understand what’s
58:41
the difference
58:42
if you can enlighten me on this what’s
58:44
the big difference between them in
58:47
ethical in their ethical view in their
58:50
view of the world they have a big
58:52
difference in their understanding of
58:54
cause-and-effect relations but when it
58:56
comes down to two basic values I think
58:59
the difference is is not big but again
59:01
the problem is that maybe we are no
59:03
longer able like the engineers you gave
59:06
the talk to so they could all agree yes
59:10
we should keep the Golden Rule but then
59:13
when they go to design some I don’t know
59:15
bridge of software they don’t understand
59:19
what they are what are the consequences
59:22
of what they are doing so how can they
59:24
act morally without this understanding
59:27
well you just described why we need a
59:30
free press um I think that’s one roll
59:33
the free press really plays today and
59:37
again what’s the upside of this age of
59:39
acceleration is now an individual can go
59:42
take a picture of that waste dumping by
59:44
that factory put it up on the internet
59:47
and it’ll go around the world in in 30
59:49
minutes competing against funny cat
59:51
videos ah no actually if you’re in my
59:54
business you’ll find that if I take a
59:56
picture of General Electric doing that
59:58
and put it up on the New York Times a
60:00
General Electric will stop doing that I
60:02
can assure you that will not compete
60:03
with cat videos so there’s an upside to
60:06
all of these I think you’ve all that
60:08
that I’m gonna we’re playing a very
60:11
useful function here I’ll do the outside
60:12
and but but but what I your people ask
60:16
me what I do for a living
60:18
tell them I am a translator from English
60:19
to English that’s what I do I try to
60:22
take complex things and break them down
60:24
first so I can understand them and then
60:25
hopefully explain them to others and I
60:28
am really my motto I’ve adopted from
60:31
Marie Curie who once said now is the
60:33
time to understand more so we may fear
60:36
less and now it’s truly I this is never
60:40
good journalism I think that practice by
60:43
the New York Times and many others has
60:46
never been more important to understand
60:49
more so people will fear less because we
60:51
now have a president who is actually in
60:53
the fear business backed up by a Pravda
60:56
like Network called Fox television
60:58
that’s in the business of making people
61:00
stupid and you put those two together
61:03
you know it’s really dangerous and and
61:06
the good news is we are finding at the
61:09
New York Times more people that we know
61:11
Donald Trump toys clients are failing
61:13
New York Times I assure you we are
61:15
anything but that today because so many
61:17
people are coming to not just the New
61:19
York Times but to trusted new sites
61:22
because they want to understand more so
61:23
they may fear less and and so many
61:27
individuals now can go out and actually
61:30
you know be citizen journalists like
61:33
never before and I would say this the
61:37
political side of that is that you know
61:40
so which like if you want to be an
61:45
optimist about America today I tell
61:47
people stand on your head because the
61:49
country looks so much better from the
61:51
bottom up than the top down okay so I
61:54
think that as we go into this age of
61:56
acceleration national governments with a
61:59
few exceptions are really too slow
62:02
certainly the big democracies are
62:04
because we’re too tribal eyes partisan
62:05
eyes now they they can’t move at the
62:07
pace of change because government moves
62:09
at the pace of trust and there’s no
62:10
trust the single individual single
62:13
family way too weak against these forces
62:16
so I think it’s the healthy community
62:19
that is going to be the proper of
62:21
governing unit of the 21st century and
62:23
if you want to know what makes me an
62:25
optimist in America is that our country
62:28
you know the cliche about America is
62:30
that we’re divided by two
62:32
so these two coasts everyone is
62:34
pluralizing diversifying globalizing and
62:36
modernizing and in between them is
62:38
flyover for America where everyone’s
62:40
high on opioids voted for Trump and
62:43
waiting for 1950 okay that’s kind of the
62:45
cliché so um well you only have to be
62:48
from Minnesota you only have to be from
62:49
flyover America – no that is not true
62:51
America is actually a checkerboard today
62:54
of communities that are collapsing from
62:57
the bottom down and communities that are
62:59
rising from the bottom up so I did a
63:02
trip a year ago to um I was invited to
63:05
give a talk at our national lab at Oak
63:07
Ridge Tennessee so I got the map out Oak
63:08
Ridge Tennessee
63:09
hey it’s down here southern tip of
63:11
Appalachia haven’t been to Appalachia I
63:13
think I’ll do a car trip across
63:15
Appalachia reading about all these
63:16
people voted for drum so I started the
63:19
trip in Austin Indiana so it’s a
63:21
southern Indiana northern tip of
63:23
Appalachian I went to excite read about
63:25
the town 4400 people and a 5% of the
63:28
town is HIV positive which is just the
63:33
worst possible levels of epidemic you
63:35
can imagine what was the story two
63:36
factories in the town one closed the
63:38
other got automated a lot of white
63:40
working-class men and women got
63:41
unemployed very quickly um
63:44
the they couldn’t adapt and I fell into
63:46
drug use and you had son father
63:49
grandfather all shooting up together
63:51
it’s a terrible store and I went there
63:53
to interview the one doctor in the town
63:54
then I got on my car and drove 40
63:57
minutes south on i-70 to Louisville
63:59
Kentucky Louisville Kentucky has 30,000
64:02
open jobs anybody looking for a job
64:04
Louisville Kentucky so what’s going on
64:07
there so which organisms thrive when the
64:10
climate changes they call complex
64:12
adaptive organisms what’s happening at
64:15
the community level the commutes that
64:16
are rising they’re creating complex
64:18
adaptive coalition’s and what you see in
64:21
Louisville and I can show you
64:23
communities all over the country these
64:25
complex adaptive coalition’s you have
64:27
the business community you’re not
64:28
plugging directly into the public school
64:31
system k12 community college four-year
64:33
college translating in real-time their
64:36
skills needs and demands okay not
64:38
waiting for the schools to figure it out
64:40
then you have the philanthropic
64:41
community
64:42
coming in supplementing it with
64:44
scholarships after-school programs
64:46
supplemental learning opportunities then
64:48
you have the local government catalyzing
64:51
at all and hiring global recruiters to
64:53
go into the world and find global
64:55
investors for their local attributes so
64:58
in the case of Louisville Louisville
64:59
happens to be the capital of Bourbon
65:01
tourism so Louisville is de Bourbon what
65:04
Napa Valley is – red wine and they’re
65:06
now distilleries and bed-and-breakfast
65:07
you go you know across just they’ve
65:10
created a tourism industry Louisville
65:12
happens to be the headquarters of ups so
65:14
you fly into Louisville Airport all you
65:16
see are factories everywhere because
65:18
when Jeff Bezos of Amazon com says
65:21
you’ve all get to that product in 24
65:23
hours it’s because he’s doing end of
65:24
runway assembly and manufacturing now in
65:27
Louisville and Louisville is a
65:29
headquarters of Humana wellness company
65:31
so the mayor’s equipped any young person
65:33
in the town who wants with a web
65:35
neighbor cloud connected breathalyzer
65:37
and kids got in the morning trying to
65:39
create citizen scientists and they map
65:41
the air quality in their neighborhood
65:43
and they feed it all into a website in
65:44
the city they’ve created a complex
65:46
adaptive coalition and this is happening
65:49
all over the country and so we’ve got
65:53
communities like Austin that opioid
65:55
crisis is real they’re collapsing but
65:57
those were you get this leadership
65:59
together are creating complex adaptive
66:01
coalition’s come to my hometown of
66:03
Minneapolis two and a half percent
66:05
unemployment I mean really thriving
66:07
they’re not waiting for Washington DC
66:09
because there’s a much higher trust
66:11
there and my my teacher Duff Seidman
66:14
always says you know Trust is the only
66:16
legal performance-enhancing drug okay so
66:19
where there’s trust in the room you can
66:21
go really fast you can go at the speed
66:23
of visits and when there’s no trust like
66:25
in Washington DC right now you can’t
66:27
move two inches so how do you make sense
66:30
of this extremely complex and checkered
66:34
reality I mean my job is much easier
66:36
than yours because as a historian who
66:39
looks mainly the past and also at long
66:41
periods of centuries and thousands of
66:44
years so the like that the main trains
66:47
jumps jump at you yeah but how do you
66:50
manage to make sense of such a
66:53
complicated and contradictory
66:55
reality and how do you know that you’re
66:58
not just you know following your biases
67:01
and seeing what you want to see so it’s
67:04
a combination it’s a very good question
67:05
of data I mean I can show you the
67:11
employment statistics you know the
67:13
economies of these towns and I can show
67:15
you the proliferation of them and then
67:19
obviously reporting and then anything is
67:22
going to be a guess you know but if I
67:24
look at the country I see the National
67:26
Statistics what’s going on to me the
67:29
question is and this I can’t do I can
67:32
only report on what’s going on is what
67:36
is the balance between these two trends
67:38
but as I’m not a historian I’m a
67:41
journalist what I’m trying to do is by
67:42
highlighting the positive trend because
67:45
I think one good example is worth a
67:47
thousand theories that people will
67:49
follow examples when they see people
67:51
like them doing it so my idealism is to
67:55
say here’s what’s working you know and
67:58
these people are just like you so you
68:00
can do it just like them I Israeli
68:03
general loozy Diane you know once said
68:05
to me Tom I know why you’re an optimist
68:08
I said why he said it’s because you’re
68:11
short and I said I’m not that sure he
68:15
said you can only see the part of the
68:17
glass that’s half-full okay so um I’m
68:20
actually not that short but I I do
68:24
believe in the Emil Evans the physicists
68:29
who helped me with all the physics in my
68:30
book you vote he likes to say when
68:33
people say Aimee are you an optimist or
68:35
a pessimist says I’m neither because
68:37
they’re just two different forms of
68:38
fatalism everything will be great
68:40
everything will be awful he said I
68:41
believe in applied hope don’t know if
68:45
it’s gonna work but I believe in applied
68:46
hope yeah I’m very interested in how you
68:49
ball has interrogated your optimism and
68:51
optimism of course it’d be the natural
68:53
note to end on but I want to care a tiny
68:55
bit more about your pessimism and
68:58
hopefully we can all think about how to
69:01
walk out of here holding both of those
69:03
ideas in our mind you wrote in sapience
69:05
I believe that there’s no
69:07
that I’m sorry I have no proof human
69:09
well-being inevitably improves as
69:12
history rolls along just a cheery
69:14
thought for all of us as we wind down
69:16
our time together
69:18
I wonder if you could help us think
69:21
about that what you’ve discussed this
69:22
evening and and Tom’s very convincing
69:26
data rich argument that when you’re
69:29
doing yoga and standing on your head you
69:31
really can see roots of communities
69:33
pulling together even in this
69:35
disorienting moment so help us leave
69:37
here both pessimists and optimists well
69:43
I try not to think in terms of pessimism
69:46
and optimism
69:49
it’s just that history just doesn’t
69:52
unfold in such a way usually you have
69:56
terrible things and wonderful things
69:58
happening at the same time maybe in
70:00
different places but happening at the
70:01
same time usually the same revolution
70:04
the same development it’s very rare when
70:07
you have a big revolution in history
70:09
which is doing only good or which is
70:11
doing only bad and of course you have
70:13
the added problem that those who lose
70:17
who lose the most and those who get
70:20
extinct and those who disappear they are
70:23
not there to tell their story
70:25
so in history there is always a certain
70:27
a certain bias towards the optimistic
70:30
side here we are here so it couldn’t
70:32
have been that bad the people for whom
70:36
it was very bad they are just not here
70:41
but you know so and also is as somebody
70:52
who tries to see the big picture and
70:55
look at the global picture there is
70:57
always the danger that you’re always
71:01
going to notice the agenda and the
71:06
opinions and the interests of the of the
71:10
hegemonic powers of the more powerful
71:12
people and societies and in classes and
71:15
whatever because they dominate
71:18
the conversation so even if you oppose
71:21
them even if you think you’re they’re
71:23
wrong you’re not going to miss their
71:26
ideas you might object their ideas you
71:30
might fight against them but you’re not
71:32
going to ignore them the problem of the
71:36
people who are like push to the side or
71:38
push down is that they are very often
71:42
just ignored not that you don’t agree
71:45
with what they say not that you think
71:47
their interests don’t count you just
71:50
don’t remember to even notice their
71:55
point of view or there are other
71:58
interests so also the question of of
72:01
pessimism and optimism it’s always a
72:04
question of who are you talking about I
72:07
think one of the main problems in
72:11
talking about the global agenda or the
72:15
problems of humanity or and the kind of
72:17
things that are that I try to doom is
72:20
that maybe there is no single future for
72:25
the whole of humankind
72:26
maybe the basic understanding of the
72:31
world is just that different groups are
72:34
going to have very different futures
72:37
maybe I mentioned earlier the question
72:40
of what to teach your kids so if you
72:43
live in one place and belong to a
72:46
particular community or to a particular
72:48
group so you teach your kids to be
72:51
resilient and you teach your kids
72:53
computer code and you teach your kids to
72:56
play the violin and you live in another
72:59
place maybe not very far away and the
73:01
best thing to teach your kids is how to
73:04
shoot a Kalashnikov and it’s happening
73:08
on the same on the same planet at the
73:10
same time and what’s more true or what’s
73:14
more important it’s it’s it’s kind of an
73:17
empty question it really boils down to
73:20
the question of perspective so this I
73:26
think is kind of a historical low or an
73:28
historical truth that there
73:31
never just a single story going around
73:35
and part of the responsibility part of
73:39
the difficulty I think of being a
73:42
journalist or being a historian is how
73:45
do you bring at least some justice to
73:49
this situation and how do you give at
73:52
least some attention to all the
73:55
different viewpoints and not just to the
73:57
to the dominant one um before you go
74:01
close you will just talk a little bit
74:04
about your next book and give us a
74:05
little tease I want to hear I’m gonna be
74:07
very sad for a second and then I’ll do
74:10
my so my next book is coming in August
74:15
September
74:16
it’s called 21 lessons for the 21st
74:19
century but it’s not really a book of
74:22
concrete lessons like do this go there
74:24
whatever it’s more an invitation to take
74:30
part in the major debates and
74:33
discussions of the world of the current
74:36
moment continuing what I said earlier I
74:40
think one of the problem problems that
74:43
most people today face is that they just
74:49
don’t have the time and the energy to be
74:52
part of the global debate of the debate
74:56
about the future of humanity there are
74:58
all these big questions of climate
75:02
change and artificial intelligence and
75:04
bioengineering and it’s going to have an
75:07
impact on the life of every single
75:10
individual on the planet but most people
75:13
they’re too busy going to work and
75:17
feeding their kids and taking care of
75:21
elderly parents and so forth they just
75:23
don’t have it’s a luxury to be able to
75:27
think about these issues to investigate
75:30
them to engage in the debate and the
75:34
problem was in one of the problems again
75:36
with history is that history never makes
75:40
any concessions and never gives any
75:43
discounts
75:44
just because you’re in difficulty oh
75:47
just because you’re poor or just because
75:50
you’re too busy taking care of your kids
75:53
if you don’t have the time and the
75:56
energy and the really the luxury to be
75:59
part of the debate it doesn’t mean that
76:03
you won’t suffer from the consequences
76:07
because in in this sense history’s
76:09
completely unfair and I see my job as a
76:15
historian as trying to help at least a
76:19
few more people take part in the debate
76:23
and this is the main purpose of the
76:27
coming book so I guess I see my job is
76:31
obviously you know reporting whatever
76:34
situation I’m assigned to report to but
76:36
I am always looking for examples of
76:39
what’s working and sharing them with
76:41
people so so because I think there’s a
76:44
power in that and that’s my version of
76:46
idealism it’s why I went into journalism
76:48
young people often come to me say I want
76:50
to do what you do you know what do I
76:53
need to know and you know I say you
76:57
build a type fast I can type real fast
76:59
um actually went to London secretarial
77:01
school to learn how to type back in on
77:03
my day here but I think that the most
77:06
important thing you need is a journalist
77:10
today is that you have to be a good
77:16
listener and for two reasons and the
77:18
second reason is more important than the
77:20
first the first is what you learn when
77:23
you listen you know but the second
77:26
reason is what you say when you listen
77:28
listening is a sign of respect and my
77:31
method to my madness if you travel with
77:34
me is I really do try to listen to
77:36
people whether on you know a little
77:39
Jewish guy from Minnesota in the Arab
77:40
world or I’m in Russia or I’m here
77:43
because I find that if you just listen
77:47
to people it’s amazing what they’ll let
77:50
you say back and if you don’t listen to
77:52
them it’s amazing you cannot tell them
77:55
it’s dark outside
77:56
and that’s why I’ve often said um before
77:59
I retire I’m gonna change my business
78:01
card it now says Thomas L Friedman New
78:03
York Times Foreign Affairs columnist and
78:05
I want to change it to Thomas L Friedman
78:07
New York Times humiliation and dignity
78:10
correspondent because I basically spent
78:12
my whole career covering people acting
78:14
out on their humiliation whether it’s in
78:16
the Middle East you know we all know the
78:19
stories they’re Russians feeling
78:20
committable Chinese you know and
78:21
questing for for dignity but I may add
78:26
also diversity correspondent and that’s
78:29
where I would end you know Rachel too
78:35
you know as a columnist sometimes you’re
78:37
in the right place at the right time and
78:39
sometimes you’re in the wrong place at
78:42
the wrong time especially when you’re a
78:44
once a week columnist as I am now
78:46
so less summer the head of the US Air
78:48
Force invited me to join him on a tour
78:50
of all America’s air bases in the Middle
78:53
East it’s a great opportunity to see
78:56
this perspective of the world in the
78:58
military and I found myself an Altoid
79:01
aid air base in Qatar the night Donald
79:05
Trump was giving his press conference
79:07
about the charlottesville disturbances
79:11
and talking about how there were good
79:13
white supremacist and bad white
79:15
supremacist and like that’s all the
79:18
world or in America was talking about
79:20
and I was in a load eight airbase at
79:23
Qatar and my column was due in a few
79:25
hours so I staring at a blank blank
79:28
screen thinking about what do I write
79:32
and then it just popped into my head I
79:35
looked around at my traveling party the
79:39
head of the US Air Force Dave goal find
79:41
his Jewish we are traveling with the Air
79:43
Force US Air Force secretary she’s a
79:45
woman Heather Wilson her chief executive
79:48
officer is an African American woman Air
79:51
Force lieutenant colonel there guards
79:53
name was one the head of the air base
79:56
and it was in Armenian American his
79:58
deputy was a lebanese american and our
80:00
intelligence briefers name was yang mr.
80:04
trump which part of this sentence don’t
80:07
you understand
80:08
okay that that is the real strength of
80:12
America our ability to make out of many
80:15
one you know and in a world where we’re
80:19
all getting so mixed up now I believe
80:23
that virtue that strength is so
80:24
important for every society now it’s
80:27
more important than ever and so I pray
80:31
this man will be a one-term president
80:33
because we can take four years of him we
80:37
cannot take eight years of him he will
80:39
destroy institutions in eight years but
80:42
I know that underneath you know there’s
80:47
still a really powerful idea of America
80:50
and diversity out there that I think
80:54
even Donald Trump cannot crush and
80:56
that’s why I is it shared also by the
80:59
average Trump voter I mean are you able
81:02
also to listen to them and I don’t think
81:05
there is an average Trump voter and I
81:07
think that because I think people came
81:09
to him for so many reasons
81:10
some people came because they were
81:12
humiliated Hillary Clinton said you’re
81:14
deplorable
81:14
I’m deplorable that I’m gonna wear a
81:16
t-shirt that says I’m a deplorable okay
81:18
some came because things you’ve talked
81:20
about you’ve all they want a wall to
81:22
stop the pace of change some came for
81:25
many reasons but my way of approaching
81:27
them because I’m a Wednesday columnist
81:29
it means I write Tuesday for Wednesday
81:31
means I have the first column after
81:32
every election hmm so I had the column
81:36
then I from one and I’m sorry the week
81:40
before he won I wrote my last column and
81:43
it was addressed to Trump voters and it
81:46
began dear fellow Americans treat people
81:49
with respect it’s amazing you know if
81:52
you start there how much you can peel
81:56
peel back you know just listen to people
81:59
and we have so many people broadcasting
82:01
now you know and not listening
82:04
particularly in politics that I think
82:09
that that’s truly the
82:12
optimism so I don’t feel we should go
82:13
too deep into the 26 women yes well to
82:19
comment actually about it one I think
82:21
that I mean the the Trump voters of
82:25
still the future of America I mean if
82:27
you don’t have them then America is
82:30
going nowhere so if you need to be
82:33
optimistic about something then you need
82:35
to be optimistic about about them as
82:37
well that I think they’re they’re all
82:40
people that you could take somewhere
82:42
with a different message not all but
82:44
many of them and secondly I would say
82:49
about about journalism I agree that it
82:55
is immensely important especially today
82:59
especially for the viability of liberal
83:02
democracies because you know democracy
83:06
is to some extent based on Lincoln’s
83:09
maxim that you can fool some people some
83:13
of the time all the time and you can
83:14
fool all the people some of the time but
83:16
not all the people all the time and this
83:19
is really just wishful thinking you can
83:22
fool people I mean not for eternity
83:24
nothing is for eternity but you can fool
83:27
all the people for a very very long time
83:29
and the the way to do it is to control
83:34
the information they get with the basic
83:37
idea of democracy is ok we elect a bunch
83:39
of people to govern the country and if
83:42
they do a bad job if they fail then
83:45
sooner or later enough people will
83:48
realize it and they will change the
83:50
government and this works fine as long
83:54
as you have free press and free
83:56
journalism if the government controls in
83:59
some way or the other
84:00
directly or indirectly if it controls
84:03
the media if it controls journalism then
84:06
it can always blame somebody else for
84:09
its failures it can always direct the
84:12
attention towards all kinds of enemies
84:15
either real or imaginary and there will
84:19
never be a day of reckoning so in in
84:23
this
84:23
there is no future to democracy without
84:27
a strong and free journalism I think yes
84:33
journalism
84:44
I was gonna say on behalf of the New
84:47
York Times a rousing defense of a strong
84:50
and free press works in very nicely to
84:53
remind you that we were here heard this
84:56
evening putting on this event
84:57
what a luxury called it to engage in
85:00
this debate and and to listen as Tom
85:03
described is so important as we do
85:05
figure out and make our way toward the
85:07
future we are going to call in an
85:10
evening here I want to thank all of you
85:12
for joining us thank the New York Times
85:14
and how to academy for putting a loss
85:16
event and please of course thank you of
85:18
all Harare and Thomas Friedman
85:21
[Applause]
85:23
[Music]
85:24
[Applause]
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