Category: Conflicts

How Thomas Friedman and Yuval Noah Harari Think About The Future of Humanity

Two of the greatest thought leaders of the 21st century– Yuval Noah Harari and Thomas L. Friedman – discuss the Future of Humanity on March 19, 2018, with moderator Rachel Dry, The New York Times. “How To Understand Our Times” is an event series collaboration between The New York Times and how to: Academy bringing together New York Times journalists and leading figures in diverse fields to examine pressing issues in a changing world, including gender equality, artificial intelligence, and alternatives to fossil fuels, among others. For upcoming events, visit timesevents.nytimes.com.

From the beginning: https://youtu.be/5chp-PRYq-w

Full Transcript

Yuval Noah Harari of course is a

00:01

best-selling author and thinker whose

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work engages us in the history of

00:07

humanity and where we’re heading

00:10

Thomas Friedman is also a best-selling

00:12

author and columnist who for decades has

00:15

been a guide to the world for readers of

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his columns and his books were in very

00:21

good hands for the evening without

00:23

further ado please welcome to the stage

00:25

you’ve all her Aria and Thomas Friedman

00:30

[Applause]

00:43

so you’ve all we’re gonna begin with you

00:46

obviously we think about the future we

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think about what’s happening in the

00:49

world and what is setting the global

00:52

agenda and if you could speak about the

00:54

global agenda yeah I think the first

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thing to say about the global agenda is

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that it exists there is a global agenda

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which is not self-evident these days

01:07

because with all the talk at least about

01:11

the rise of nationalism and tribalism

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and the clash of civilizations and so

01:16

forth we sometimes tend to forget that

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in a very deep sense all of humanity

01:22

today constitutes a single civilization

01:26

yes we have a lot of conflicts but every

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civilization every community every

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family has a lot of conflicts the people

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you fight most with are your family

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members not with strangers because they

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are there so the fact that the world is

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full of conflict doesn’t mean that we

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are not a single community or a single

01:50

civilization and I think in a deep sense

01:55

almost all humans today or at least

01:58

almost all countries today understand

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the fundamentals of reality in the same

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way they understand politics in the same

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way if you think about China the USA

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Iran or Israel they understand the

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basics of politics in the same way the

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basics of economics in the same way and

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the basics of nature in the same way

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they argue about a lot of things but

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when it comes time to build a hospital

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or an economy or a nuclear bomb they do

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it in the same way and just as we have a

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set of similar ideas and practices we

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also all of humanity we have a set of

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common problems global problems

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can only be solved on a global level and

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of these global problems the three most

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important of nuclear war climate change

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and technological disruption now the

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first two are quite familiar by now the

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third technological disruption is the

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most mysterious most people don’t really

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understand what’s coming even most

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experts cannot really say what kinds of

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threats what kind of dangers the new

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technologies especially AI artificial

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intelligence and bioengineering will

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create there are a lot of scenarios

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scary scenarios like if you think about

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artificial intelligence so one scary

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scenario is that it will lead to the

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emergence to the rise of a global

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useless class just as the Industrial

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Revolution of the 19th century created

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the urban working class so the

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automation revolution of the 21st

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century might create the useless class

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and much of the political and social

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history of the coming decades might

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revolve around the problems and the

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hopes and the fears of this new class

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another danger is that new technologies

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might lead to the collapse of liberal

04:27

democracy especially if you think about

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the combination the merger of biotech

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and Infotech they might very soon reach

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the point when they create systems they

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create algorithms that understand us

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better than we understand ourselves and

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once you have an external algorithm that

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understands you better than you

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understand yourself liberal democracy as

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we have known it for the last century or

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so is

05:05

doomed it will have to adapt to the new

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conditions it will have to reinvent

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itself in a radical new form or it will

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collapse because you can say that the

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Achilles heel of liberal democracy is

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the heart liberal democracy trusts in

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the feelings of human beings and that

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worked as long as nobody could

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understand your feelings better than you

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yourself or your mother but if there is

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an algorithm out there that understands

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your feelings better than your mother

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and can press your emotional buttons

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better than your mother and you won’t

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even understand that this is happening

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then liberal democracy will become an

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emotional puppet show and we have these

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you know these slogans of listen to your

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heart follow your heart but what happens

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if your heart is a foreign agent is a

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double agent serving somebody else who

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knows how to press your emotional

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buttons who knows how to make you angry

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how to make you bold how to make you

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joyful this is the kind of threat that

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we are already beginning to see emerging

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today for example elections and

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referendums so really I would say that

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the three big challenges the three top

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items on our global agenda is how to

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prevent nuclear war how to prevent

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climate change and how to learn to

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control the new technology before it

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learns to control us thank you we think

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about the future we are the future of

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humanity we obviously have to think

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about our understanding

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of the world I wondered if you could

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talk a little bit about how you

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understand the world today

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well first of all Rachel’s great to be

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with you and devolopment thank you all

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for coming out this is a real treat so

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in my last you know as a columnist one

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of the things I’m always asking myself

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is um how does the Machine work what are

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the biggest gears employees shaping or

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reshaping the world today and in my last

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book thank you for being late I picking

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up really on some of the themes you’ve

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all spoke about I argued that what is

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shaping more things in more places in

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more ways on more days is that we’re in

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the middle three nonlinear accelerations

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with the three largest forces on the

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planet which I call the market mother

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nature and Moore’s law so a mother

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nature for me is climate change

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biodiversity loss and population growth

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in the developing world if you put that

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on a graph it actually looks like a

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giant hockey stick the market for me is

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globalization but not your grandfather’s

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globalization that was containers on

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ships and planes that’s actually flat to

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going down right now but digital

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globalization so everything’s being

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digitized and globalized put that on a

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graph whether it’s measuring data

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consumed per month or cellphones it

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looks like a hockey stick and lastly

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Moore’s Law coined by Gordon Moore in

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1965 the co-founder of Intel argued that

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the speed and power of microchips will

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double every 24 months it’s closer to 30

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months now but never mind Moore’s law

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has held up for 53 years put it on a

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graph it looks like a giant hockey stick

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so we’re actually in the middle of three

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hockey stick accelerations all at the

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same time and I believe it’s the

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interaction between them that really is

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not just changing our world it’s it’s

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reshaping our world and it’s reshaping

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five realms in particular politics

08:54

geopolitics ethics the community in the

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workplace so as I think about politics

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right now that some of these on

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everybody’s mind you know one of the

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things you really see is that political

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parties all over the world here in the

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UK in the United States they’re blowing

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up some are in power so they think

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they’re alive but they’re all basically

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dead and that’s because they in my view

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they were all

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warned of an industrial age model that

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the central theme was capitalism versus

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labor or big government versus small

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government and the axis of politics was

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left to right and right to left um what

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I would argue and this is gets to how I

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think about the world today is that um

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that model is no longer relevant

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I think the way to think about politics

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today is through the model of climate

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change but I think we’re in the middle

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of three climate changes at once a first

09:51

friend the change of the climate of the

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climate we’re going from what I call

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later to now so when I was growing up in

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Minnesota in the 50s and 60s later was

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when I could clean that Lake repair that

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River

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save that for us rescue that orangutan I

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could do it now or I could do it later

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well today later is officially over

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later will now be too late so whatever

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you’re gonna save please save it now

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that’s a climate change we’re going

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through a change in the climate of

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globalization I think we’re going from

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an interconnected world to an

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interdependent world and an

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interdependent world you get a kind of

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geopolitical invert inversion where

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you’re first of all your friends your

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friends start to be able to kill you

10:32

faster than your enemies um you have

10:35

Greek and Italian banks go under tonight

10:37

this room is half-full a Greece Italy

10:40

wait a min NATO there in the EU in an

10:42

interdependent world they can kill us

10:44

and an interdependent world your rivals

10:47

falling is actually more dangerous than

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your rivals rising so if China take six

10:52

more islands in the South China Sea

10:53

tonight don’t quote me on this couldn’t

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care less

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um if China loses 6% growth tonight this

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room is empty

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that’s a climate change and lastly we’re

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going through a change in the climate of

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business and technology I’m a big

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believer that um one reason I focus on

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technology so much I’m a big believer

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that whatever can be done will be done

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the only question in business is will it

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be done by you or to you but just don’t

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think it won’t be done so I’m going to

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ask you what can be done and when you

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look at AI and some of the themes that

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you’ve all talked about I think every

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company they can therefore must analyze

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optimize

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sighs customize socialize and digitize /

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autumn Atty virtually any job product or

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service so they can analyze now thanks

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to big data they can find the needle in

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the haystack of their data as the norm

11:46

not the exception they can optimize I

11:49

flew here on British Airways rolls-royce

11:51

engines those engines actually connected

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by sensor to rolls-royce and they could

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tell ba exactly what altitude to fly

11:57

every mile to optimize their energy

11:59

efficiency they can prophesize you may

12:02

have seen the IBM Watson ad where the

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IBM Watson repairman comes to a

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high-rise building says I’m here to fix

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the elevator and the doorman says the

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elevators not broken and he says I know

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but it will be in six weeks two three

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days okay you can do predictive

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analytics on anything now you can

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socialize that is you could connect now

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to your customers your suppliers your

12:21

employees on a horizontal way like never

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before

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you can customize just for guys from

12:26

Minnesota with brown eyes and a mustache

12:28

and you can digitize / autumn Atty

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virtually any job product or service you

12:33

put all those together and every

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business today finds himself in the

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middle of the climate change so as I

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thought about that I thought well what

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do you want when the climate changes I

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think you want two things you want

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resilience maybe I’ll take a blow

12:47

because you get disruptive behavior when

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the climate changes but you also want

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propulsion you want to be able to move

12:51

ahead you don’t be curled up in a ball

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under your bed waiting for the climate

12:55

change to pass so as I thought about

12:57

that I said who do I go to to find how

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you get resilience and propulsion when

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the climate changes then I realize I

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knew this woman she was 3.8 billion

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years old

13:08

her name was Mother Nature and she dealt

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with more climate changes than anybody

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so I called her up made an appointment

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went out to see her um and I sat down I

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said mother nature how do you produce

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resilience in propulsion and when the

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climate changes she said well Tom

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everything I do I have to tell you I do

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unconsciously but um these are my

13:28

strategies um first of all she said I’m

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incredibly adaptive in my world it’s not

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the smartest that survive it’s not the

13:34

strongest it’s actually the most

13:36

adaptive that that bet survived and I do

13:39

what she said through a rather brutal

13:40

mechanism I call natural selection

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second she said I’m incredibly

13:45

entrepreneurial where

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I see an opening in nature a blank space

13:48

I fill it with a planter animal

13:50

perfectly adapted for that niche third

13:53

she said I’m incredibly pluralistic Oh

13:55

Tom she said I’m the most pluralistic

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person you’ve ever met

13:59

I tried 20 different species of

14:00

everything see who wins and she did tell

14:03

me something interesting she told me her

14:04

most diverse ecosystems are her most

14:06

resilient and propulsive ecosystems of

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course she told me she’s totally

14:12

sustainable in a circular way everything

14:14

is food eat food poop seed eat food poop

14:17

seed nothing is wasted um v she said I’m

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incredibly high bred and heterodox in my

14:22

thinking nothing dogmatic about me I’ll

14:25

try any trees with any soils any bees

14:27

with any flowers and lastly she did

14:29

mention that she does believe in the

14:31

laws of bankruptcy she told me she kills

14:34

all her failures returns them to the

14:35

great manufacturer in the sky and takes

14:38

their energy to nourish her successes

14:40

well my argument is that the community

14:42

the country the government and the

14:46

business that most closely mirrors

14:48

mother nature strategies for building

14:50

resilience and propulsion when the

14:52

climate changes is the one that will

14:54

thrive in this age of acceleration and

14:55

since when I was writing my book it was

14:58

the 216 election I actually imagine what

15:00

if Mother Nature was running against

15:02

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016

15:04

and so I created mother nature’s

15:06

political party based on these

15:08

strategies I won’t go into it I’m just

15:11

close by saying that on some issues

15:13

Mother Nature she’s out there on the

15:15

left with Bernie Sanders um because she

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believes in universal health care and

15:19

making lifelong learning completely tax

15:22

free cuz she understands in this world

15:25

that you vols describing it’s gonna be

15:28

too damn fast for a lot of people so she

15:30

wants to strengthen our safety nets to

15:31

bounce people back into the game

15:33

and protect him but at the same time

15:34

mother nature would be out there on the

15:37

right with the Wall Street Journal

15:38

editorial page she’d actually be for

15:40

abolishing all corporate taxes only

15:42

unlike our Republican Party she’d

15:44

replaced them with a carbon tax a tax on

15:47

sugar attacks on bullets and a small

15:49

financial transaction tax she would get

15:52

radically entrepreneurial over here to

15:54

pay for our safety nets over here

15:56

unfortunately in our old industrial age

15:58

model of politics if you’re

16:00

for stronger safety nets he almost never

16:03

for radical entrepreneurship if your for

16:05

radical entrepreneurship you’re almost

16:07

never for stronger safety nets what

16:09

would mother nature call that stupid

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that’s what she’d call it because she

16:14

would understand you will never produce

16:17

resilience

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unless you’re a hybrid of these two and

16:20

because our current political parties

16:22

are not built on that model I think

16:25

they’re all struggling now to find a way

16:27

to talk about politics we’d also be

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hearing from mother nature this evening

16:35

so there’s the three of us on stage and

16:37

a variety of perspective problems also

16:44

not our problems as you mentioned she is

16:49

quite keen on extinction and she does

16:54

believe in that and she wouldn’t care if

16:58

we are unable to cope with our problems

17:02

and go extinct also she wouldn’t care

17:05

very much if humankind splits and say a

17:10

small percentage becomes a new species

17:13

better adapted to the new conditions and

17:17

a couple of billions just go in the way

17:20

of the Neanderthals and the mammoths and

17:23

all that so it’s very good to learn from

17:27

mother nature but copying her methods

17:31

too closely would be I think very bad

17:34

news for a lot of people my you’ve

17:37

always get the best out of her and

17:39

cushion the worst because and I I do

17:42

agree with you your mother nature my one

17:45

of my science teachers talked about this

17:50

that she just chemistry biology and

17:52

physics that’s all she is

17:54

you can’t talk her up you can’t talk her

17:56

down can’t say mother nature were we’re

17:59

having a recession this year could we

18:01

take a year off on the climate um she’s

18:03

gonna actually do whatever chemistry

18:05

biology and physics dictate and to put

18:07

it in American baseball terms mother

18:09

nature always bats last

18:11

and she always bats a thousand so do not

18:14

mess with mother nature which is exactly

18:16

what we’re doing

18:17

I wonder where obviously I’m talking on

18:21

a long-term framework here but of course

18:27

I imagine many of you came here tonight

18:29

thinking about you know what’s

18:31

immediately in front of you

18:32

what news alerts are on your phones what

18:36

what tom I believe you’ve referred to

18:41

the American president as a brain-eating

18:43

disease perhaps what he might be up to

18:46

what else is going on both speak to how

18:50

we deal with what is unrelenting in

18:54

front of us while thinking about the

18:57

broader challenges that you’ve outlined

18:58

how do we do both at once how do we

19:00

adapt to do both at once first of all

19:05

can we have a bit more light on the

19:07

audience because it’s very difficult to

19:09

see who I’m talking to

19:10

it’s just a sea of darkness and it’s

19:13

nice to see some faces after all it’s

19:16

really about you not about us you will

19:20

have to deal with the future also yeah

19:24

it’s it’s very difficult for for people

19:27

I mean humans have proven throughout

19:29

history that they are very good when it

19:32

comes to short-term problems and

19:35

solutions but it’s extremely difficult

19:37

to foresee the long-term consequences

19:40

and one of the things that happened if

19:42

we talk about then various climate

19:45

changes is that time is accelerating so

19:49

thousands of years ago something like

19:52

the Agricultural Revolution takes

19:54

centuries even thousands of years and

19:57

the consequences of our decision today

20:01

to start growing wheat we will see or

20:06

not we somebody our descendants will see

20:09

the consequences of these this decision

20:12

in a couple of centuries maybe even in

20:15

thousands of years but now time is

20:18

accelerating so the long term is not

20:21

2,000 years or 200 years the long

20:24

term is 20 years we are really in an

20:28

unprecedented situation in history when

20:31

nobody knows the basics about how the

20:35

world would look like in 20 or 30 years

20:38

not just the basics of geopolitics who

20:41

would be the big superpowers in 20 or 30

20:44

years or what will be the major

20:46

alliances in the world in 20 30 years we

20:50

don’t know much more basic stuff such as

20:53

what the job market would look like what

20:56

kind of skills people will need what

20:59

family structure would look like what

21:01

general relations would look like so

21:04

it’s really the first time in history

21:05

when we have no idea how human society

21:10

will be like in a couple of decades and

21:13

this means among other things that for

21:16

the first time in history we have no

21:18

idea what to teach in schools and so we

21:25

focus on the short term and not just on

21:28

the short term but actually we should

21:30

then go back and focus on the past

21:33

connecting to what you said about the

21:35

crisis of most political parties that

21:39

still think in terms of the 20th century

21:41

and right versus left and capitalism

21:44

versus socialism and all that I think

21:47

that politics and government in most of

21:49

the world today they are doing a far

21:51

better job than ever before in running

21:55

the day-to-day business of the of the

21:57

country it may not look like this but

21:59

I’m a medievalist so I constantly

22:02

compare the government of today to the

22:05

government of a doll the third or low

22:07

st. Louis or something like that and

22:09

it’s wonderful the world we’re living in

22:13

is really wonderful

22:14

so they are doing an excellent job in in

22:17

in the day to day business of the

22:19

country but what they have almost lost

22:22

completely is the ability to have a long

22:26

term plan for the future because they

22:30

can’t see they have no realistic vision

22:35

of against base

22:37

things like the job market in 30 years

22:39

so what you see in more and more

22:42

countries is that they look to the Past

22:45

instead of to the future and instead of

22:49

formulating meaningful visions for the

22:53

word humankind will be in 2050 they

22:57

repackage nostalgic fantasies about the

23:01

past and there is a kind of competition

23:04

who can look back farthest so you have

23:08

Donald Trump wanting to go back to the

23:11

1950s or something like that and you

23:14

have put in basically wanting to go back

23:17

to the Tsarist Empire a century after

23:20

the Bolshevik Revolution and you have

23:22

Isis that wants to go back to the

23:25

seventh century Arabia and in my country

23:27

in Israel they beat everybody they want

23:30

to go back 2500 years to the age of the

23:34

Bible so we win we have the Bell the

23:37

longest term vision backwards and this

23:43

is a as a historian I can tell you two

23:47

things about the past the past wasn’t a

23:50

very good time you don’t really want to

23:52

go back there and secondly it is not

23:56

coming back no matter what you do you

23:59

can’t bring it back and so we are facing

24:03

really a crisis of the inability of the

24:07

political system to produce meaningful

24:09

visions for the future maybe the only

24:12

place in the world where there is

24:15

serious work on producing a meaningful

24:18

vision for the future is in China

24:20

whether it’s a good vision or a bad

24:22

vision it’s a different question but

24:24

this is the one place I think where the

24:27

government is seriously thinking in

24:30

future terms and in long terms of

24:32

decades and not in terms of one or two

24:36

years and certainly not in terms of

24:38

going back decades and centuries so just

24:43

to pick up on what you’ve all said

24:45

Richie that we’re starting with Trump I

24:47

described Trump as a brain-eating

24:49

disease

24:50

because as a columnist you’re always in

24:53

this position everyday where he says or

24:56

does something so outrageous you feel if

24:58

you don’t write about it you’re

25:00

normalizing him but if you do write

25:02

about it he stoled your brains for a day

25:04

now if you do that twice a week four

25:07

times or eight times a month you’ll wake

25:09

up after a year and discover all you’ve

25:11

written about is that knucklehead and um

25:13

and he’s actually sucked your brains out

25:16

so it’s a real it’s a real challenge um

25:19

so you know my the subtitle of my book

25:22

is is an optimist guide to thriving in

25:24

the age of acceleration so everything’s

25:27

sped up and the reason it’s called thank

25:30

you for being late as the title comes

25:32

from meeting people in Washington DC for

25:34

breakfast over the years and every once

25:36

in a while someone would come 15 20

25:39

minutes late they say Tom I’m really

25:40

sorry it was the weather the traffic the

25:42

subway the dog ate my homework and um

25:44

one day three and a half years ago an

25:46

Energy entrepreneur Peter Carr cell came

25:48

three enough minutes 15 minutes late and

25:51

said I’m really sorry whether the

25:52

traffic the subway the dog ate my

25:53

homework

25:54

and I just spontaneously said to him

25:56

actually Peter thank you for being late

26:00

because you were late I’ve been

26:04

eavesdropping on their conversation

26:07

fascinating I’ve been people watching

26:10

the lobby fantastic and best of all best

26:15

of all I just connected to ideas I’ve

26:17

been struggling with for a month so

26:20

thank you for being late people started

26:24

to get into it they’d say well you’re

26:27

welcome because they understood I was

26:32

actually giving them permission to pause

26:33

to slow down in fact my favorite quote

26:35

from the front of the book is from my

26:36

teacher and friend of Simon who says you

26:38

know when you press the pause button on

26:40

a computer it stops but when you press

26:44

the pause button on a human being

26:45

it starts that’s when it starts to

26:49

reflect rethink and reimagine and boy

26:52

don’t we need to do a lot of that right

26:54

now now to pick up on you Vols point

26:58

about leadership when the world is fast

27:01

small errors in navigation

27:03

can have huge consequences when we just

27:06

needed to go fifty miles at five miles

27:09

an hour well if you had a bad president

27:11

or prime minister for governor or mayor

27:13

you’d get off track but the pain of

27:15

getting back on track was fairly

27:17

tolerable but when you need to feel like

27:20

you’re going fifty thousand miles at

27:22

five thousand miles an hour when you

27:24

have a bad leader now you can get so far

27:26

off track it’s like a 747 pilot just

27:29

changing two digits as he enters the

27:32

navigation of his jet and suddenly

27:34

you’re halfway across the world in the

27:36

wrong direction and so leadership really

27:40

matters more right now now I you know I

27:46

I think I would agree with with what

27:48

you’ve all said about China in this

27:50

sense I think China’s leaders do wake up

27:53

every day more than the average leader

27:55

in the world and start the day by asking

27:57

what world am i living in what are the

27:59

biggest trends in this world and how do

28:01

i align myself with those trends unlike

28:04

I think a lot of leaders in the world

28:05

but I would find I would tell you I’m

28:07

seeing amazing leadership in America

28:10

today in two places you’ve a one is at

28:13

the corporate level and the other is at

28:16

the local level so at the corporate

28:20

level as I think about the workplace

28:24

challenge the way I put it I think our

28:26

central challenge is how do we turn a I

28:27

into ia how do we take artificial

28:31

intelligence and turn it into

28:32

intelligent assistance ance intelligent

28:36

assistance a NTS and intelligent

28:39

algorithms so more people can learn

28:42

faster and govern smarter so I’ll give

28:45

you example of intelligent assistance um

28:47

that I use it’s the HR department

28:50

resources department at AT&T are giant

28:52

telecom so you know what’s interesting

28:55

on AT&T three hundred thirty thousand

28:57

employees in one of the most competitive

28:59

businesses and world global telecom

29:01

pretty good chance that whatever is

29:03

going on in their HR department is

29:05

coming to a neighborhood near you so

29:07

what’s going on in HR at AT&T well they

29:10

begin their year now where their leader

29:11

Randall Stephenson he starts the year

29:13

with a pretty radically transparent

29:14

speech about where the companies

29:16

going what businesses they’re gonna be

29:17

in and what skills you need as a worker

29:20

at 80 that year filters down through the

29:24

company then they put all their managers

29:26

a hundred ten thousand people on their

29:28

own in-house LinkedIn system so I’m

29:31

there it’s Tom Friedman you know and it

29:33

has my academic background and the jobs

29:35

I’ve had in the company then they match

29:37

that up with the skill sets I’m making

29:40

up the number cuz I don’t remember it

29:41

exactly but it’s probably ten skill sets

29:43

you need that year to be a rising

29:45

employee at AT&T they’ve got my CV

29:47

they’re on LinkedIn and they realize

29:49

I’ve got seven of the ten but I’m

29:51

missing three then they partnered with

29:53

Sebastian Thrun from Udacity the online

29:55

learning University and he created

29:57

nanodegrees for all ten skill sets then

30:00

they came to me and said Tom here’s the

30:03

deal um we will give you up to eight

30:06

thousand dollars a year to take the Nano

30:08

degrees for the skill sets you’re

30:09

missing that we heard that you’re

30:11

interested in computer science we just

30:13

created an online computer science

30:15

degree for six thousand dollars a year

30:16

with Georgia Tech fact we heard you’re

30:18

interested in history you can take an

30:21

online course from that guy yeah you’ve

30:22

all Hariri will pay for that as well

30:24

yeah just one condition mr. Tom you have

30:28

to take these courses at home at night

30:30

on your own time not on company time now

30:34

if I say to them you know what mr. AT&T

30:36

I’ve actually climbed up one too many

30:38

telephone poles I’m just not into this

30:39

anymore

30:40

um they now have a wonderful severance

30:43

package for me okay but I will not be

30:46

working there much longer

30:47

so they flush out now about thirty

30:49

thousand people they take in about

30:51

thirty thousand people they advance

30:52

about ten thousand every year

30:53

what is AT&T social contract today with

30:56

their employees it’s a you can be a

30:59

lifelong employee still today if you’re

31:01

at AT&T but now only if you’re a

31:03

lifelong learner

31:04

if you are not ready to be a lifelong

31:07

learner you can no longer be a lifelong

31:09

employee at AT&T and that is the social

31:12

contract coming to a neighborhood near

31:14

you and that’s why one of my teacher is

31:17

Heather McGowan there’s an education

31:19

expert and this picks up on something

31:21

that you’ve all said Heather likes to

31:23

say mom dad never asked your kids today

31:26

what you want to be when you grow up

31:28

because whatever it is not

31:29

be here unless it’s policemen or firemen

31:32

okay only ask your kid today how you

31:36

want to be when you grow up will you

31:38

have an agile learning mindset will you

31:39

be predisposed to be a lifelong learner

31:42

long after you’ve left home and mom and

31:44

dad are not there to say you’ve all have

31:46

you done your homework and that leads to

31:49

what I think is really roiling societies

31:51

today and and and you’ve all touched on

31:53

this with these people might be out of

31:55

work which is something I learned from

31:57

marina gorebyss who runs the institute

31:58

of the future if we were having this

32:00

conversation 15 years ago one of the

32:02

themes we’d be talking about is the

32:04

digital divide

32:05

you know London’s got Internet

32:06

Manchester dozen Europe’s got it Africa

32:09

doesn’t digital divide it was huge um I

32:11

believe that digital byte is rapidly

32:13

disappearing I don’t know when it’ll be

32:14

gone but I’m sure in a decade it’ll be

32:17

gone and when it is the most important

32:18

divide in the world is going to be the

32:21

self-motivation divide whose kids have

32:23

the self-motivation to be a lifelong

32:25

learner long after they’ve left home and

32:28

mom and dad are not there to ask them to

32:30

do their homework is what you learned in

32:31

your first year now could be outdated by

32:34

your fourth year of college the idea

32:36

that you can get a four-year degree

32:38

Undine out on that for 30 years is like

32:40

so 1950s and that that has a lot of

32:44

people really unnerved because a lot of

32:47

people were actually born and bred to do

32:49

what they were told and God bless and

32:51

they built your country in mind and you

32:52

Falls but just doing what you’re told

32:54

now will not bring you average income

32:57

and an average lifestyle and I think

32:58

that has a lot of people really

33:00

frightened I think what you’re

33:03

describing is extremely stressful I mean

33:07

I just hear you and you know there is so

33:11

much stress and reinventing yourself

33:16

again and again throughout your life

33:19

sounds terrible to most people because

33:24

you know when you’re 15 you’re 16 then

33:26

you’re inventing yourself and it’s still

33:29

stressful when you’re 15 but it’s still

33:31

doable when you reach 4050 you don’t

33:35

want to change yes I want to keep on

33:37

learning new things and to gain

33:39

experience and to go into new places and

33:42

so forth but

33:43

really change the deep structures of my

33:47

personalities of my professional skills

33:50

to learn things afresh it sounds you

33:54

know very exciting and then very like

33:56

good but it’s actually extremely

33:58

difficult and if this is what we are

34:02

heading and we are heading in the

34:04

direction we will be facing a stress

34:06

epidemic even far worse than then today

34:10

and then other things with all these

34:13

algorithms that again are watching us

34:15

all the time in our learning our

34:18

abilities and our problems and whether

34:20

we are self-motivated or not once the

34:23

algorithms reached the conclusion that

34:26

you are not going to make it you will

34:29

not go you will not be able to make it I

34:31

mean we are used to this problem of

34:35

discrimination against people based on

34:38

wrong statistics like in the 20th

34:41

century discrimination against people

34:44

usually took the form of discriminating

34:47

against entire groups based either on

34:51

faulty statistics or based on just

34:54

religious biases and racism and so forth

34:58

so as the world if you were gay you had

35:00

discrimination against all gays if

35:02

you’re a woman then all all women and

35:05

one of the things about it is that you

35:08

could actually do something about it

35:10

because most of the time the biases were

35:13

not true and because many people

35:16

suffered from them they could join

35:19

together and have some a political

35:21

action against the discrimination now in

35:25

the coming years in the coming decades

35:27

we will face individual discrimination

35:30

and it might actually be based on a good

35:33

assessment of who you are I mean if 88

35:36

NT if the algorithms and the big data

35:39

algorithms of AT&T they follow you

35:42

around they look up your Facebook

35:44

profile your DNA your records from

35:47

kindergarten until today they will be

35:51

able to figure out quite accurately who

35:53

you are and if they for example find out

35:56

that I lack

35:57

motivation on the on the X scale on the

36:00

Harare scale of the Freedmen’s scale of

36:02

motif of of self-motivation 0 to 10

36:05

he is just 7.1 and we don’t want to

36:09

accept to our company

36:11

people of less than 8.2 and we know from

36:16

experience that yes we can give you a

36:18

little push but you just lack what we

36:21

need and you will not be able to do

36:25

anything or almost anything about this

36:27

discrimination first of all because it’s

36:30

just you they don’t discriminate against

36:33

your me because you’re Jewish or gay or

36:35

black or whatever because you are you

36:37

and the worst thing is there will be it

36:41

will be true I mean they got me i I

36:45

really lack self motivation they really

36:50

got me so what do I do about it and it

36:54

sounds funny in a way but if you think

36:56

about it deeply it’s terrible everybody

36:59

on what everybody has something and you

37:04

will not be able to do much about it so

37:07

let me give you the flip side of that

37:09

because everything about these systems

37:11

you’ve all is everything and it’s

37:13

opposite so you you just described the

37:16

downside of that but let me talk about

37:19

intelligent assistant for a second

37:22

example I give him the book so the

37:23

example I use is on the janitorial staff

37:26

at Qualcomm big American tech company in

37:30

San Diego they have 64 billion building

37:33

campus they they built the inside your

37:35

iPhone not Apple that’s why Apple is

37:36

always suing them over patents and um

37:39

they three years ago they took six of

37:43

their buildings they put sensors on

37:44

everything every door window light pipe

37:47

faucet drain computer and they beamed

37:49

all that data up to the cloud and now

37:50

they beam it down onto an iPad with this

37:52

incredibly user-friendly interface for

37:55

their janitorial staff so if you leave

37:57

your computer on or a pipe bursts above

37:58

my head

37:59

the janitor knows it before you or I do

38:01

and they just swipe down to see who to

38:03

call or how to fix it themselves

38:05

they’ve actually turned their janitors

38:07

into

38:08

it’s technologists they’re janitors now

38:10

give tours to foreign visitors what do

38:13

you think that does for the dignity of a

38:14

janitor because he or she now has an

38:16

intelligent assistant enabling them to

38:18

learn you know faster and work smarter I

38:20

will give you another example

38:23

intelligent algorithm so um those of you

38:27

American students here know that an 11th

38:29

grade way to take the PSAT exam the

38:31

practice SAT exam to take the SAT exam

38:34

to measure our math and verbal skills to

38:36

get into the college of our choice so we

38:40

also know in America that a lot of

38:41

parents go out in 11th grade and hire a

38:43

tutor for $200 an hour to Goose your

38:45

scores in math and verbal a completely

38:48

rigged game because if you come from a

38:50

family or neighborhood where you can’t

38:52

afford that you’re really at a

38:53

disadvantage so three years ago

38:55

the College Board that administers the

38:57

PSAT and SAT exam your a-levels and

38:59

o-levels partnered with Khan Academy the

39:02

online learning platform to create free

39:05

PSAT and SAT prep so the way it works

39:08

now is I take my PSAT and 11th grade I

39:10

get the results back I did really well

39:13

in verbal it says Tom you you could be a

39:15

journalist actually um but um but it

39:18

says I have a problem with math it

39:20

actually says I Tom Friedman personally

39:23

because it knows me have a problem with

39:25

fractions and right angles then it takes

39:28

me to a practice site just for fractions

39:30

and right angles doesn’t waste any time

39:32

on my weaknesses if I do well there

39:35

takes me to another site that says Tom

39:36

you could be an AP math Wow you need to

39:39

be met I mean no one in my family is an

39:42

AP math no one in my neighborhood

39:43

yeah you could be an AP math if I do

39:45

well there text me another site with 180

39:47

college scholarships last year 3 million

39:51

American kids got free PSAT and SAT prep

39:54

on this intelligent algorithm and I’ll

39:57

give you another one that’s very

39:58

relevant to the point you raised

39:59

we have about 32 million people who

40:01

start a college but never finished they

40:04

go one year two years two and a half

40:05

three three and a half years they drop

40:06

out go to bite get a job or do it online

40:09

the algorithm says you have no BA no job

40:12

so a whole new set of intelligent

40:15

algorithms have emerged one eye profiles

40:17

opportunity at work so what they do now

40:19

is you can go to them with your

40:21

year two year two and a half of

40:22

knowledge they will badge what you

40:24

actually know and what you can do with

40:26

what you know and they partner with

40:28

companies to slot you in without a BA so

40:31

I profiled a young african-american

40:32

woman LaShonda Lewis

40:33

she went to Michigan Tech for three and

40:35

a half years studied computer science

40:37

had to drop out for family reasons she

40:40

went back home was driving a school bus

40:42

to and from a computer school couldn’t

40:44

make that up and working at a law firm

40:46

on the helpdesk helping lawyers

40:48

rediscover their lost passwords okay she

40:51

was discovered by opportunity at work

40:53

they partnered with MasterCard slotted

40:56

her in as a stay measured her knowledge

40:57

slotted her in as a systems engineer at

41:00

MasterCard she’s now a senior systems

41:02

engineer at MasterCard and as she says

41:05

in the last line of her interview and

41:07

mr. Friedman I still don’t have a BA so

41:11

that’s an intelligent help that’s the

41:13

other side of this and and what I found

41:16

is there is enormous innovation going on

41:20

on the other side of this you’re

41:22

absolutely right on the downside but for

41:24

every downside of this somebody’s

41:27

invented an upside I would just add one

41:30

other point you know what was the

41:32

fastest growing restaurant chain in

41:34

America according to Entrepreneur

41:35

Magazine in 2015 and you never guess it

41:38

it’s actually called paint nite fastest

41:41

burn restaurant chain in America what is

41:42

paint nite it’s paint by numbers for

41:44

adults and bars

41:46

turns out idols like to get together in

41:48

a bar have an artist draw a design for

41:50

them and they paint by numbers together

41:53

according to that design and have a

41:55

drink it’s amazing how many adults like

41:58

to paint by numbers in bars okay who

42:00

knew okay that is there all these jobs

42:04

out there and that’s why I would close

42:06

by saying if you really want to blow

42:08

your mind

42:09

go to Airbnb x’ website you’ll notice

42:12

now there are two icons on the front

42:13

page ones homes that’s because I’m

42:17

coming to London like my sister did this

42:19

week and I want to get an apartment here

42:21

you know we all know that but now the

42:22

other ones called experiences and click

42:26

if you want to have some fun

42:27

click experiences it’s people monetizing

42:31

their passions I will give you a tour of

42:35

three man basketball games in Havana at

42:37

night with a mojito at the end read that

42:40

one the American mother who said I send

42:41

my 18 year old on this he didn’t come

42:43

back till 2:00 in the morning he was

42:44

having so much fun I’ll teach you how to

42:46

make falafel you know in job I’ll teach

42:48

you how to make it you know this is it

42:50

full time employment maybe maybe not

42:52

it’s the fastest growing part of Airbnb

42:55

is website and I predict in five years

42:57

it’ll be the biggest job site in the

43:00

world people monetizing their passions

43:03

sticking with this theme we’ve been

43:05

talking a lot about individuality we’ll

43:07

be able to learn individually just how

43:10

unmotivated we are again perhaps

43:13

motivated to go paint plates by numbers

43:16

so we’ll know so much more about

43:19

ourselves as individuals how is that

43:21

going to affect how we all live together

43:24

Tom you’ve written about I believe you

43:26

called yourself a pluralism supremacist

43:28

how does increase knowledge it’s

43:31

increased knowledge of our individuality

43:33

exactly just how

43:35

well-suited we are for a job or poorly

43:38

suited for any job what does that mean

43:41

and how we all live together and and are

43:43

we moving more inward in this moment or

43:46

where do you see floral ISM going it’s

43:50

very hard to say I mean of course as you

43:52

said I mean every technology has good

43:55

potential and in bad potential this is

43:58

what is different about disruptive

44:00

technologies compared to nuclear war and

44:03

climate change nuclear war is this is

44:05

obviously terrible nobody nobody wants

44:08

it the question is just how to prevent

44:10

it with disruptive technology the danger

44:13

in a way is far greater because it has

44:16

some wonderful potential so there are a

44:18

lot of forces that for some very good

44:21

reasons are pushing us faster and faster

44:24

to develop and adopt these disruptive

44:28

technologies and it’s very difficult to

44:31

know in advance what the consequences

44:34

will be in terms of community in terms

44:38

of relations between people in terms of

44:40

politics 20 years ago in the high days

44:43

of internet optimism

44:45

you had all this extremely optimistic

44:48

and today we say naive dreams and

44:53

visions that the internet will bring

44:56

everybody closer together you could have

44:58

friends from all over the world in the

45:00

end there will be freedom of expression

45:02

and all the dictators will fall and the

45:05

world will turn into one big happy and

45:08

peaceful community and this didn’t

45:11

happen and we look back today and we say

45:14

oh this was extremely naive I mean if

45:17

people forget about human nature did we

45:19

learn nothing from history and the

45:22

answer is yes we learn very little from

45:24

history does it mean that every new

45:27

technology will just make things worse

45:30

no obviously not but it extremely

45:33

difficult to know which way it will go I

45:39

think that history is just not

45:41

deterministic and again when you look to

45:45

the past when you look at the 20th

45:46

century and what people could do with

45:50

new technologies and you could build you

45:53

can use the trains and radio to build

45:55

Nazi Germany or you could use the same

45:58

technology to build liberal democracy

45:59

and it’s it’s kind of touching goal who

46:04

wins I don’t think there is any

46:07

predetermined or preordained winner in

46:12

these competitions so again with AI we

46:16

can sit here all evening and a couple of

46:19

more evenings and spin all kinds of

46:22

likely scenarios which are all possible

46:25

what will happen some very good and some

46:28

very bad and some in between and we just

46:32

don’t know I think as a story in the the

46:37

best thing the most important thing we

46:40

need to realize is that there is no

46:43

predetermined

46:44

story which is in a way very frightening

46:47

and you know we are now living with the

46:53

collapse of the last story of

46:57

inevitability

46:59

and in the 1990s in the same era of the

47:04

extremely optimistic vision of the

47:07

internet we also had this story this

47:12

idea that history is over that we know

47:16

who won the great ideological battle of

47:20

the 20th century liberal democracy and

47:22

in free-market capitalism came out on

47:25

out on top and now it’s just a question

47:28

of time until it will spread and take

47:31

over the whole world and again this now

47:34

seems extremely naive and the moment we

47:39

are at now is a moment of extreme

47:45

disillusionment and bewilderment because

47:48

we have no idea where things will will

47:53

go from here this is why I think it’s

47:56

it’s very important to be aware of the

47:59

of the downside of the dangerous

48:02

scenarios of the new technologies I mean

48:06

obviously the the corporation’s the

48:09

engineers the people in the laboratories

48:11

they naturally focus on all the enormous

48:16

benefits that these technologies might

48:20

bring us and it folds to historians and

48:24

to philosophers and to social scientists

48:27

to think about all the ways in which

48:29

things can go wrong so when Frank

48:33

Okayama wrote the end of history I at

48:36

the same time wrote a book called Lexus

48:38

and the olive tree and the argument of

48:40

the book was that I think what is going

48:42

to shape the future is a tension between

48:44

all of these things that are old faith

48:47

community religion sect tribe all things

48:50

that anchor us in the world olive trees

48:52

and the interaction between them and

48:54

technology and I still believe that that

48:57

is that’s certainly for me a helpful

48:59

framework that it’s a because what we do

49:01

with those passions how we govern them

49:03

how we mobilize them it can be for good

49:05

or for ill and that for it for me

49:09

you know it’s a good segue to talk about

49:11

the ethics question and one you wrote a

49:14

whole book about Homo dias

49:16

you know so uh III just did a little

49:18

chapter on it and and let me give mine

49:21

and then you give yours because I think

49:23

to be an interesting contrast between

49:25

the two so my version of the argument

49:29

you made the chapter on it is called is

49:33

God in cyberspace he’s God in cyberspace

49:37

best question ever got on book tour 1990

49:41

I was selling Lexus the Ala tree in

49:42

Portland Oregon question time came young

49:44

man stood up in the balcony said mr.

49:46

Friedman I have a question he is god in

49:48

cyberspace I said I have no idea

49:59

I felt like an idiot so I got home I

50:03

called my spiritual teacher he was a

50:05

rabbi I got to know at the Hartman

50:06

Institute in Jerusalem when I was the

50:08

New York Times correspondent there great

50:09

tome u2 scholar three marks

50:11

now there’s an Amsterdam married to a

50:12

Dutch priest interesting character and

50:14

um I called him up in Amsterdam I said

50:19

see I got a question I’ve never had

50:20

before is God in cyberspace

50:23

what should I said and I he said well

50:26

Tom in our faith tradition we actually

50:28

have two concepts of the Almighty a

50:29

biblical concept and a post biblical

50:31

concept so the biblical concept is that

50:33

the almighty is almighty he smites evil

50:37

and rewards good and if that’s your view

50:39

of God he sure isn’t in cyberspace which

50:43

is full of pornography gambling cheating

50:44

lying people smearing one another and

50:46

Twitter and now we know fake news so um

50:49

fortunately though he said we have a

50:51

post biblical view of God and the post

50:54

biblical view of God is that God

50:55

manifests himself by how we behave so if

50:58

we want God to be in cyberspace we have

51:00

to bring him there by how we behave

51:02

there I really like this answer I put it

51:04

into the paperback edition of Lexus the

51:06

olive tree in 2000 where none of you saw

51:08

it and it sat there for 16 years

51:09

anyways I started working on this book

51:11

and I found myself

51:13

spontaneously retelling that story I

51:15

said why are you retelling that story

51:17

and it became obvious to me for two

51:18

reasons and one just happened I think in

51:21

the last couple of years in the

51:23

developed world we began living 51

51:25

scent of our lives in cyberspace it’s

51:28

not where you go to find a date find us

51:29

out spouse buy a house buy a car write a

51:31

book buy a book get a mortgage give

51:34

alone get your news generate your news

51:36

we’re now living do your banking your

51:38

brokerage we’re now living 51% of our

51:41

lives in cyberspace and my definition of

51:44

cyberspace is that it’s a realm where

51:45

we’re all connected and no one’s in

51:47

charge so there are no courts in

51:50

cyberspace no lovely ceman no stoplights

51:52

no no 1-800 please stop Putin from

51:56

hacking my election but that’s where

51:59

we’re living our lives another way to

52:01

describe it we’re living 51% of our

52:03

lives in a realm that is fundamentally

52:06

God free at the same time because of

52:09

these accelerations you and I both have

52:11

talked about I think we’re standing at a

52:13

moral intersection we have never stood

52:15

at before as a species in 1945 we

52:18

entered the world where one country

52:20

could kill all of us possi regime and

52:23

that was the United States I’m glad it

52:25

had to be one country but it was the

52:26

United States I think we’re entering a

52:29

world where one person can kill all of

52:30

us and at the same time at the same time

52:33

where all of us could actually fix

52:36

everything because these accelerated

52:38

powers for the first time are creating

52:40

world where one of us could kill all of

52:41

us and all of us now if we actually put

52:43

our minds to it we have the tools to

52:45

feed house clothe and educate every

52:48

person on the planet we have never been

52:50

to this intersection before where one of

52:53

us can kill all of us and all of us

52:54

could fix everything and what does that

52:57

mean means we’ve never been more godlike

52:59

as a species than we are today well put

53:02

those two together we’ve never lived

53:03

more of our lives in a realm that’s

53:05

Godfrey and we have never been more

53:08

godlike and what that means is that what

53:11

every person thinks feels and believes

53:13

really matters it means everyone needs

53:17

to be in the grip of sustainable values

53:18

it means at a minimum everyone needs to

53:22

be in the embrace of the Golden Rule and

53:24

every faith and culture has their

53:25

version of it doing to others as you

53:27

wish them to do unto you because you now

53:28

live in a world where more people can do

53:30

unto you farther faster deeper cheaper

53:33

than ever before Putin did unto us in

53:35

our election and we can do unto others

53:37

farther faster deeper cheaper than ever

53:39

for everyone needs to be in the embrace

53:42

of the golden rule I know what you’re

53:45

thinking actually gave this thing as a

53:48

commencement address at Olin College of

53:50

Engineering two years ago and I said to

53:52

the parents there I know what you’re

53:55

thinking

53:55

you paid two hundred thousand dollars

53:58

for your kid to get an engineering

54:00

degree and who do they bring us the

54:02

commencement speaker but a knucklehead

54:05

promoting the golden rule is there

54:08

anything more naive and what I told them

54:12

is what I would say again tonight I

54:14

think in this age of acceleration

54:16

naivete is the new realism because

54:19

what’s really naive is thinking we’re

54:21

gonna be okay in a world that is this

54:24

interdependent we’re men women and

54:26

machines get this super empowered if

54:29

everyone is not in the embrace of the

54:32

golden rule where does the golden rule

54:34

come from I think two places primarily

54:36

strong families and healthy communities

54:39

and that’s why my focus and my work

54:42

today is so much on healthy communities

54:45

but I would say that maybe the big

54:49

problem is not so much morality as it is

54:52

causality that we just cause a little I

54:57

mean the ability to understand the

54:58

change of causes and effects in the

55:00

world I think there is no lack of values

55:03

today in the world but to really act

55:07

well it’s not enough to have good values

55:09

you need to have a good understanding of

55:12

the chains of causes and effects like if

55:15

you think about the commandment like

55:17

don’t steal so okay let’s everybody

55:20

agree it’s not good to steal but the big

55:23

problem today is not that somebody says

55:25

hey I want to steal what will you do to

55:27

me

55:27

the big problem is that stealing has

55:30

become so complicated that I’m steaming

55:33

all the time and I’m not even aware of

55:35

it the commandment don’t steal was

55:39

formalized in an era when stealing meant

55:42

meant breaking myself I’m breaking into

55:45

somebody’s house and snatching some gold

55:48

coins or a goat or whatever and it was

55:51

easy – at least honest

55:52

what I’m doing and what the potential

55:55

consequences are for the owner of the

55:58

gold coins of the gold but how do I

56:01

still today well I put like ten thousand

56:04

and I have a pension fund and ten

56:07

thousand dollars out of my pension fund

56:10

are invested in some big oil corporation

56:14

or chemical corporation that brings

56:16

profits of say four or five percent

56:19

every years with a very good investment

56:20

and how does the corporation makes such

56:24

huge profits for example by dumping

56:27

toxic waste into a river and polluting

56:31

the entire water resources of the area

56:34

and hurting the health of the local

56:36

population and the wildlife and so forth

56:39

but the cooperation is so rich that it

56:43

can retain an army of lawyers that

56:46

protects it against all lawsuits and

56:49

also a small brigade of people in the

56:55

capital that block any attempt to have

56:59

stronger environmental regulations now

57:02

am i guilty of stealing a river I’m not

57:06

even a word that part of my pension fund

57:09

is invested in this cooperation and even

57:12

if I am aware I don’t know how the

57:15

cooperation makes its money it will take

57:18

me months maybe years to find out where

57:22

my money

57:23

what my money is doing and during that

57:26

time I will be guilty of so many other

57:29

crimes which I know nothing about and

57:32

the really the problem is that our sense

57:36

of morality our sense of justice like

57:39

our other senses was evolved in the

57:45

ancient African savanna when your

57:48

pension funds you had just one pension

57:50

funds which was your kids and you knew

57:53

what your pension fund was you was doing

57:56

it was playing in the mud or something

57:59

and so the entire the ability that the

58:04

problem is no

58:05

agreeing on basic morality the problem

58:10

is on understanding the extremely

58:12

complicated change of cause and effect

58:14

in the world and again my fear is that

58:18

maybe Homo sapiens is just not up to it

58:21

we have created such a complicated world

58:23

that we have no longer able to make

58:26

sense of what is happening and if I

58:30

looked at politics in the u.s. again

58:33

from the vantage point of a medievalist

58:36

Republicans and Democrats seems almost

58:39

identical I just don’t understand what’s

58:41

the difference

58:42

if you can enlighten me on this what’s

58:44

the big difference between them in

58:47

ethical in their ethical view in their

58:50

view of the world they have a big

58:52

difference in their understanding of

58:54

cause-and-effect relations but when it

58:56

comes down to two basic values I think

58:59

the difference is is not big but again

59:01

the problem is that maybe we are no

59:03

longer able like the engineers you gave

59:06

the talk to so they could all agree yes

59:10

we should keep the Golden Rule but then

59:13

when they go to design some I don’t know

59:15

bridge of software they don’t understand

59:19

what they are what are the consequences

59:22

of what they are doing so how can they

59:24

act morally without this understanding

59:27

well you just described why we need a

59:30

free press um I think that’s one roll

59:33

the free press really plays today and

59:37

again what’s the upside of this age of

59:39

acceleration is now an individual can go

59:42

take a picture of that waste dumping by

59:44

that factory put it up on the internet

59:47

and it’ll go around the world in in 30

59:49

minutes competing against funny cat

59:51

videos ah no actually if you’re in my

59:54

business you’ll find that if I take a

59:56

picture of General Electric doing that

59:58

and put it up on the New York Times a

60:00

General Electric will stop doing that I

60:02

can assure you that will not compete

60:03

with cat videos so there’s an upside to

60:06

all of these I think you’ve all that

60:08

that I’m gonna we’re playing a very

60:11

useful function here I’ll do the outside

60:12

and but but but what I your people ask

60:16

me what I do for a living

60:18

tell them I am a translator from English

60:19

to English that’s what I do I try to

60:22

take complex things and break them down

60:24

first so I can understand them and then

60:25

hopefully explain them to others and I

60:28

am really my motto I’ve adopted from

60:31

Marie Curie who once said now is the

60:33

time to understand more so we may fear

60:36

less and now it’s truly I this is never

60:40

good journalism I think that practice by

60:43

the New York Times and many others has

60:46

never been more important to understand

60:49

more so people will fear less because we

60:51

now have a president who is actually in

60:53

the fear business backed up by a Pravda

60:56

like Network called Fox television

60:58

that’s in the business of making people

61:00

stupid and you put those two together

61:03

you know it’s really dangerous and and

61:06

the good news is we are finding at the

61:09

New York Times more people that we know

61:11

Donald Trump toys clients are failing

61:13

New York Times I assure you we are

61:15

anything but that today because so many

61:17

people are coming to not just the New

61:19

York Times but to trusted new sites

61:22

because they want to understand more so

61:23

they may fear less and and so many

61:27

individuals now can go out and actually

61:30

you know be citizen journalists like

61:33

never before and I would say this the

61:37

political side of that is that you know

61:40

so which like if you want to be an

61:45

optimist about America today I tell

61:47

people stand on your head because the

61:49

country looks so much better from the

61:51

bottom up than the top down okay so I

61:54

think that as we go into this age of

61:56

acceleration national governments with a

61:59

few exceptions are really too slow

62:02

certainly the big democracies are

62:04

because we’re too tribal eyes partisan

62:05

eyes now they they can’t move at the

62:07

pace of change because government moves

62:09

at the pace of trust and there’s no

62:10

trust the single individual single

62:13

family way too weak against these forces

62:16

so I think it’s the healthy community

62:19

that is going to be the proper of

62:21

governing unit of the 21st century and

62:23

if you want to know what makes me an

62:25

optimist in America is that our country

62:28

you know the cliche about America is

62:30

that we’re divided by two

62:32

so these two coasts everyone is

62:34

pluralizing diversifying globalizing and

62:36

modernizing and in between them is

62:38

flyover for America where everyone’s

62:40

high on opioids voted for Trump and

62:43

waiting for 1950 okay that’s kind of the

62:45

cliché so um well you only have to be

62:48

from Minnesota you only have to be from

62:49

flyover America – no that is not true

62:51

America is actually a checkerboard today

62:54

of communities that are collapsing from

62:57

the bottom down and communities that are

62:59

rising from the bottom up so I did a

63:02

trip a year ago to um I was invited to

63:05

give a talk at our national lab at Oak

63:07

Ridge Tennessee so I got the map out Oak

63:08

Ridge Tennessee

63:09

hey it’s down here southern tip of

63:11

Appalachia haven’t been to Appalachia I

63:13

think I’ll do a car trip across

63:15

Appalachia reading about all these

63:16

people voted for drum so I started the

63:19

trip in Austin Indiana so it’s a

63:21

southern Indiana northern tip of

63:23

Appalachian I went to excite read about

63:25

the town 4400 people and a 5% of the

63:28

town is HIV positive which is just the

63:33

worst possible levels of epidemic you

63:35

can imagine what was the story two

63:36

factories in the town one closed the

63:38

other got automated a lot of white

63:40

working-class men and women got

63:41

unemployed very quickly um

63:44

the they couldn’t adapt and I fell into

63:46

drug use and you had son father

63:49

grandfather all shooting up together

63:51

it’s a terrible store and I went there

63:53

to interview the one doctor in the town

63:54

then I got on my car and drove 40

63:57

minutes south on i-70 to Louisville

63:59

Kentucky Louisville Kentucky has 30,000

64:02

open jobs anybody looking for a job

64:04

Louisville Kentucky so what’s going on

64:07

there so which organisms thrive when the

64:10

climate changes they call complex

64:12

adaptive organisms what’s happening at

64:15

the community level the commutes that

64:16

are rising they’re creating complex

64:18

adaptive coalition’s and what you see in

64:21

Louisville and I can show you

64:23

communities all over the country these

64:25

complex adaptive coalition’s you have

64:27

the business community you’re not

64:28

plugging directly into the public school

64:31

system k12 community college four-year

64:33

college translating in real-time their

64:36

skills needs and demands okay not

64:38

waiting for the schools to figure it out

64:40

then you have the philanthropic

64:41

community

64:42

coming in supplementing it with

64:44

scholarships after-school programs

64:46

supplemental learning opportunities then

64:48

you have the local government catalyzing

64:51

at all and hiring global recruiters to

64:53

go into the world and find global

64:55

investors for their local attributes so

64:58

in the case of Louisville Louisville

64:59

happens to be the capital of Bourbon

65:01

tourism so Louisville is de Bourbon what

65:04

Napa Valley is – red wine and they’re

65:06

now distilleries and bed-and-breakfast

65:07

you go you know across just they’ve

65:10

created a tourism industry Louisville

65:12

happens to be the headquarters of ups so

65:14

you fly into Louisville Airport all you

65:16

see are factories everywhere because

65:18

when Jeff Bezos of Amazon com says

65:21

you’ve all get to that product in 24

65:23

hours it’s because he’s doing end of

65:24

runway assembly and manufacturing now in

65:27

Louisville and Louisville is a

65:29

headquarters of Humana wellness company

65:31

so the mayor’s equipped any young person

65:33

in the town who wants with a web

65:35

neighbor cloud connected breathalyzer

65:37

and kids got in the morning trying to

65:39

create citizen scientists and they map

65:41

the air quality in their neighborhood

65:43

and they feed it all into a website in

65:44

the city they’ve created a complex

65:46

adaptive coalition and this is happening

65:49

all over the country and so we’ve got

65:53

communities like Austin that opioid

65:55

crisis is real they’re collapsing but

65:57

those were you get this leadership

65:59

together are creating complex adaptive

66:01

coalition’s come to my hometown of

66:03

Minneapolis two and a half percent

66:05

unemployment I mean really thriving

66:07

they’re not waiting for Washington DC

66:09

because there’s a much higher trust

66:11

there and my my teacher Duff Seidman

66:14

always says you know Trust is the only

66:16

legal performance-enhancing drug okay so

66:19

where there’s trust in the room you can

66:21

go really fast you can go at the speed

66:23

of visits and when there’s no trust like

66:25

in Washington DC right now you can’t

66:27

move two inches so how do you make sense

66:30

of this extremely complex and checkered

66:34

reality I mean my job is much easier

66:36

than yours because as a historian who

66:39

looks mainly the past and also at long

66:41

periods of centuries and thousands of

66:44

years so the like that the main trains

66:47

jumps jump at you yeah but how do you

66:50

manage to make sense of such a

66:53

complicated and contradictory

66:55

reality and how do you know that you’re

66:58

not just you know following your biases

67:01

and seeing what you want to see so it’s

67:04

a combination it’s a very good question

67:05

of data I mean I can show you the

67:11

employment statistics you know the

67:13

economies of these towns and I can show

67:15

you the proliferation of them and then

67:19

obviously reporting and then anything is

67:22

going to be a guess you know but if I

67:24

look at the country I see the National

67:26

Statistics what’s going on to me the

67:29

question is and this I can’t do I can

67:32

only report on what’s going on is what

67:36

is the balance between these two trends

67:38

but as I’m not a historian I’m a

67:41

journalist what I’m trying to do is by

67:42

highlighting the positive trend because

67:45

I think one good example is worth a

67:47

thousand theories that people will

67:49

follow examples when they see people

67:51

like them doing it so my idealism is to

67:55

say here’s what’s working you know and

67:58

these people are just like you so you

68:00

can do it just like them I Israeli

68:03

general loozy Diane you know once said

68:05

to me Tom I know why you’re an optimist

68:08

I said why he said it’s because you’re

68:11

short and I said I’m not that sure he

68:15

said you can only see the part of the

68:17

glass that’s half-full okay so um I’m

68:20

actually not that short but I I do

68:24

believe in the Emil Evans the physicists

68:29

who helped me with all the physics in my

68:30

book you vote he likes to say when

68:33

people say Aimee are you an optimist or

68:35

a pessimist says I’m neither because

68:37

they’re just two different forms of

68:38

fatalism everything will be great

68:40

everything will be awful he said I

68:41

believe in applied hope don’t know if

68:45

it’s gonna work but I believe in applied

68:46

hope yeah I’m very interested in how you

68:49

ball has interrogated your optimism and

68:51

optimism of course it’d be the natural

68:53

note to end on but I want to care a tiny

68:55

bit more about your pessimism and

68:58

hopefully we can all think about how to

69:01

walk out of here holding both of those

69:03

ideas in our mind you wrote in sapience

69:05

I believe that there’s no

69:07

that I’m sorry I have no proof human

69:09

well-being inevitably improves as

69:12

history rolls along just a cheery

69:14

thought for all of us as we wind down

69:16

our time together

69:18

I wonder if you could help us think

69:21

about that what you’ve discussed this

69:22

evening and and Tom’s very convincing

69:26

data rich argument that when you’re

69:29

doing yoga and standing on your head you

69:31

really can see roots of communities

69:33

pulling together even in this

69:35

disorienting moment so help us leave

69:37

here both pessimists and optimists well

69:43

I try not to think in terms of pessimism

69:46

and optimism

69:49

it’s just that history just doesn’t

69:52

unfold in such a way usually you have

69:56

terrible things and wonderful things

69:58

happening at the same time maybe in

70:00

different places but happening at the

70:01

same time usually the same revolution

70:04

the same development it’s very rare when

70:07

you have a big revolution in history

70:09

which is doing only good or which is

70:11

doing only bad and of course you have

70:13

the added problem that those who lose

70:17

who lose the most and those who get

70:20

extinct and those who disappear they are

70:23

not there to tell their story

70:25

so in history there is always a certain

70:27

a certain bias towards the optimistic

70:30

side here we are here so it couldn’t

70:32

have been that bad the people for whom

70:36

it was very bad they are just not here

70:41

but you know so and also is as somebody

70:52

who tries to see the big picture and

70:55

look at the global picture there is

70:57

always the danger that you’re always

71:01

going to notice the agenda and the

71:06

opinions and the interests of the of the

71:10

hegemonic powers of the more powerful

71:12

people and societies and in classes and

71:15

whatever because they dominate

71:18

the conversation so even if you oppose

71:21

them even if you think you’re they’re

71:23

wrong you’re not going to miss their

71:26

ideas you might object their ideas you

71:30

might fight against them but you’re not

71:32

going to ignore them the problem of the

71:36

people who are like push to the side or

71:38

push down is that they are very often

71:42

just ignored not that you don’t agree

71:45

with what they say not that you think

71:47

their interests don’t count you just

71:50

don’t remember to even notice their

71:55

point of view or there are other

71:58

interests so also the question of of

72:01

pessimism and optimism it’s always a

72:04

question of who are you talking about I

72:07

think one of the main problems in

72:11

talking about the global agenda or the

72:15

problems of humanity or and the kind of

72:17

things that are that I try to doom is

72:20

that maybe there is no single future for

72:25

the whole of humankind

72:26

maybe the basic understanding of the

72:31

world is just that different groups are

72:34

going to have very different futures

72:37

maybe I mentioned earlier the question

72:40

of what to teach your kids so if you

72:43

live in one place and belong to a

72:46

particular community or to a particular

72:48

group so you teach your kids to be

72:51

resilient and you teach your kids

72:53

computer code and you teach your kids to

72:56

play the violin and you live in another

72:59

place maybe not very far away and the

73:01

best thing to teach your kids is how to

73:04

shoot a Kalashnikov and it’s happening

73:08

on the same on the same planet at the

73:10

same time and what’s more true or what’s

73:14

more important it’s it’s it’s kind of an

73:17

empty question it really boils down to

73:20

the question of perspective so this I

73:26

think is kind of a historical low or an

73:28

historical truth that there

73:31

never just a single story going around

73:35

and part of the responsibility part of

73:39

the difficulty I think of being a

73:42

journalist or being a historian is how

73:45

do you bring at least some justice to

73:49

this situation and how do you give at

73:52

least some attention to all the

73:55

different viewpoints and not just to the

73:57

to the dominant one um before you go

74:01

close you will just talk a little bit

74:04

about your next book and give us a

74:05

little tease I want to hear I’m gonna be

74:07

very sad for a second and then I’ll do

74:10

my so my next book is coming in August

74:15

September

74:16

it’s called 21 lessons for the 21st

74:19

century but it’s not really a book of

74:22

concrete lessons like do this go there

74:24

whatever it’s more an invitation to take

74:30

part in the major debates and

74:33

discussions of the world of the current

74:36

moment continuing what I said earlier I

74:40

think one of the problem problems that

74:43

most people today face is that they just

74:49

don’t have the time and the energy to be

74:52

part of the global debate of the debate

74:56

about the future of humanity there are

74:58

all these big questions of climate

75:02

change and artificial intelligence and

75:04

bioengineering and it’s going to have an

75:07

impact on the life of every single

75:10

individual on the planet but most people

75:13

they’re too busy going to work and

75:17

feeding their kids and taking care of

75:21

elderly parents and so forth they just

75:23

don’t have it’s a luxury to be able to

75:27

think about these issues to investigate

75:30

them to engage in the debate and the

75:34

problem was in one of the problems again

75:36

with history is that history never makes

75:40

any concessions and never gives any

75:43

discounts

75:44

just because you’re in difficulty oh

75:47

just because you’re poor or just because

75:50

you’re too busy taking care of your kids

75:53

if you don’t have the time and the

75:56

energy and the really the luxury to be

75:59

part of the debate it doesn’t mean that

76:03

you won’t suffer from the consequences

76:07

because in in this sense history’s

76:09

completely unfair and I see my job as a

76:15

historian as trying to help at least a

76:19

few more people take part in the debate

76:23

and this is the main purpose of the

76:27

coming book so I guess I see my job is

76:31

obviously you know reporting whatever

76:34

situation I’m assigned to report to but

76:36

I am always looking for examples of

76:39

what’s working and sharing them with

76:41

people so so because I think there’s a

76:44

power in that and that’s my version of

76:46

idealism it’s why I went into journalism

76:48

young people often come to me say I want

76:50

to do what you do you know what do I

76:53

need to know and you know I say you

76:57

build a type fast I can type real fast

76:59

um actually went to London secretarial

77:01

school to learn how to type back in on

77:03

my day here but I think that the most

77:06

important thing you need is a journalist

77:10

today is that you have to be a good

77:16

listener and for two reasons and the

77:18

second reason is more important than the

77:20

first the first is what you learn when

77:23

you listen you know but the second

77:26

reason is what you say when you listen

77:28

listening is a sign of respect and my

77:31

method to my madness if you travel with

77:34

me is I really do try to listen to

77:36

people whether on you know a little

77:39

Jewish guy from Minnesota in the Arab

77:40

world or I’m in Russia or I’m here

77:43

because I find that if you just listen

77:47

to people it’s amazing what they’ll let

77:50

you say back and if you don’t listen to

77:52

them it’s amazing you cannot tell them

77:55

it’s dark outside

77:56

and that’s why I’ve often said um before

77:59

I retire I’m gonna change my business

78:01

card it now says Thomas L Friedman New

78:03

York Times Foreign Affairs columnist and

78:05

I want to change it to Thomas L Friedman

78:07

New York Times humiliation and dignity

78:10

correspondent because I basically spent

78:12

my whole career covering people acting

78:14

out on their humiliation whether it’s in

78:16

the Middle East you know we all know the

78:19

stories they’re Russians feeling

78:20

committable Chinese you know and

78:21

questing for for dignity but I may add

78:26

also diversity correspondent and that’s

78:29

where I would end you know Rachel too

78:35

you know as a columnist sometimes you’re

78:37

in the right place at the right time and

78:39

sometimes you’re in the wrong place at

78:42

the wrong time especially when you’re a

78:44

once a week columnist as I am now

78:46

so less summer the head of the US Air

78:48

Force invited me to join him on a tour

78:50

of all America’s air bases in the Middle

78:53

East it’s a great opportunity to see

78:56

this perspective of the world in the

78:58

military and I found myself an Altoid

79:01

aid air base in Qatar the night Donald

79:05

Trump was giving his press conference

79:07

about the charlottesville disturbances

79:11

and talking about how there were good

79:13

white supremacist and bad white

79:15

supremacist and like that’s all the

79:18

world or in America was talking about

79:20

and I was in a load eight airbase at

79:23

Qatar and my column was due in a few

79:25

hours so I staring at a blank blank

79:28

screen thinking about what do I write

79:32

and then it just popped into my head I

79:35

looked around at my traveling party the

79:39

head of the US Air Force Dave goal find

79:41

his Jewish we are traveling with the Air

79:43

Force US Air Force secretary she’s a

79:45

woman Heather Wilson her chief executive

79:48

officer is an African American woman Air

79:51

Force lieutenant colonel there guards

79:53

name was one the head of the air base

79:56

and it was in Armenian American his

79:58

deputy was a lebanese american and our

80:00

intelligence briefers name was yang mr.

80:04

trump which part of this sentence don’t

80:07

you understand

80:08

okay that that is the real strength of

80:12

America our ability to make out of many

80:15

one you know and in a world where we’re

80:19

all getting so mixed up now I believe

80:23

that virtue that strength is so

80:24

important for every society now it’s

80:27

more important than ever and so I pray

80:31

this man will be a one-term president

80:33

because we can take four years of him we

80:37

cannot take eight years of him he will

80:39

destroy institutions in eight years but

80:42

I know that underneath you know there’s

80:47

still a really powerful idea of America

80:50

and diversity out there that I think

80:54

even Donald Trump cannot crush and

80:56

that’s why I is it shared also by the

80:59

average Trump voter I mean are you able

81:02

also to listen to them and I don’t think

81:05

there is an average Trump voter and I

81:07

think that because I think people came

81:09

to him for so many reasons

81:10

some people came because they were

81:12

humiliated Hillary Clinton said you’re

81:14

deplorable

81:14

I’m deplorable that I’m gonna wear a

81:16

t-shirt that says I’m a deplorable okay

81:18

some came because things you’ve talked

81:20

about you’ve all they want a wall to

81:22

stop the pace of change some came for

81:25

many reasons but my way of approaching

81:27

them because I’m a Wednesday columnist

81:29

it means I write Tuesday for Wednesday

81:31

means I have the first column after

81:32

every election hmm so I had the column

81:36

then I from one and I’m sorry the week

81:40

before he won I wrote my last column and

81:43

it was addressed to Trump voters and it

81:46

began dear fellow Americans treat people

81:49

with respect it’s amazing you know if

81:52

you start there how much you can peel

81:56

peel back you know just listen to people

81:59

and we have so many people broadcasting

82:01

now you know and not listening

82:04

particularly in politics that I think

82:09

that that’s truly the

82:12

optimism so I don’t feel we should go

82:13

too deep into the 26 women yes well to

82:19

comment actually about it one I think

82:21

that I mean the the Trump voters of

82:25

still the future of America I mean if

82:27

you don’t have them then America is

82:30

going nowhere so if you need to be

82:33

optimistic about something then you need

82:35

to be optimistic about about them as

82:37

well that I think they’re they’re all

82:40

people that you could take somewhere

82:42

with a different message not all but

82:44

many of them and secondly I would say

82:49

about about journalism I agree that it

82:55

is immensely important especially today

82:59

especially for the viability of liberal

83:02

democracies because you know democracy

83:06

is to some extent based on Lincoln’s

83:09

maxim that you can fool some people some

83:13

of the time all the time and you can

83:14

fool all the people some of the time but

83:16

not all the people all the time and this

83:19

is really just wishful thinking you can

83:22

fool people I mean not for eternity

83:24

nothing is for eternity but you can fool

83:27

all the people for a very very long time

83:29

and the the way to do it is to control

83:34

the information they get with the basic

83:37

idea of democracy is ok we elect a bunch

83:39

of people to govern the country and if

83:42

they do a bad job if they fail then

83:45

sooner or later enough people will

83:48

realize it and they will change the

83:50

government and this works fine as long

83:54

as you have free press and free

83:56

journalism if the government controls in

83:59

some way or the other

84:00

directly or indirectly if it controls

84:03

the media if it controls journalism then

84:06

it can always blame somebody else for

84:09

its failures it can always direct the

84:12

attention towards all kinds of enemies

84:15

either real or imaginary and there will

84:19

never be a day of reckoning so in in

84:23

this

84:23

there is no future to democracy without

84:27

a strong and free journalism I think yes

84:33

journalism

84:44

I was gonna say on behalf of the New

84:47

York Times a rousing defense of a strong

84:50

and free press works in very nicely to

84:53

remind you that we were here heard this

84:56

evening putting on this event

84:57

what a luxury called it to engage in

85:00

this debate and and to listen as Tom

85:03

described is so important as we do

85:05

figure out and make our way toward the

85:07

future we are going to call in an

85:10

evening here I want to thank all of you

85:12

for joining us thank the New York Times

85:14

and how to academy for putting a loss

85:16

event and please of course thank you of

85:18

all Harare and Thomas Friedman

85:21

[Applause]

85:23

[Music]

85:24

[Applause]

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